Sunday, January 15, 2017

Before Mays speech: How is the Brexit? – FAZ – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

On Tuesday, it should be so wide: For weeks, the pressure on the British Prime Minister, Theresa is grown May, finally, be clear in explaining what is your Plan for the imminent withdrawal of the British from the EU. Since the new year is fueled by the expectation that the head of government, in a keynote speech, for clarity. So now Tuesday. The mere announcement of the great presence let in the past few months, beleaguered exchange rate of the pound will once again tremble. But Europe will be after may’s speech to be smarter?

Marcus Theurer author: Marcus Theurer, economic correspondent, based in London.

it is Clear that The wife in the Downing Street wanted to keep this speech actually never. You have no interest in, “leave current comments” the exit negotiations, said May in September – and, so far, these talks have begun. The British government wants to send the formal letter of termination to the end of March to Brussels. Then the clock starts to tick: According to the EU rules, scarce two years are provided for the most divorce, the process of European history.

a sense of helplessness in the Cabinet?

May has also referred to the fact that it is the British Position hurts only when she puts her cards in the negotiation poker with the other EU-States, to early on the table, and specifically says what are the objectives of the British. Not To mention on the other hand, no negotiating strategy alone. Due to conflicting announcements Mays and their Minister rather gave the impression that you scratch at the Cabinet table, especially stumped on the head: “Theresa Maybe” was the headline in the magazine “The Economist” and mockingly. In the rather heated political climate on the island such an impression of weakness can quickly become dicey for May, which ruled with only a razor-thin majority in Parliament.

The so will be the narrow ridge on which the Prime Minister must balance on Tuesday, in her speech: on the one Hand, you don’t want to give just a few information, to play Brussels unnecessarily in the hands, on the other hand, but the impression dissipate, in Downing Street, Chaos reigns. Can this be done? . You can’t have it both ways: fog light candles and ensuring a clear view.

The course

May will have to decide – and at the end of probably the London fog prefer. So closely, however, is not. The head of government has set up in a Central point, namely, for a long time: The previously unrestricted immigration of citizens of other EU States to the UK to be completed after the Brexit. Because the open borders for EU economic migrants on the island for the Symbol, such as “Brussels,” the Kingdom of its national sovereignty to Rob. The so-called free movement of persons, however, will be for the other EU-States are hardly negotiable: it is a fundamental rule of the EU internal market. It follows, therefore, that the British departure, very likely from the common market.

More about

The Soft in the direction of a “hard” Brexits are probably already in place. A week ago, May was asked whether the limitation of immigration from the EU have priority over a further membership in the EU internal market. Your answer: “often people talk as if we would somehow leave the EU and yet parts of the EU wanted to keep it.” Exactly this is not the case: “We go.” It also notes the recent speculation in the British media suggest.

Also, an exit from the EU customs Union would be their own free trade agreements with America

from the London perspective is only logical. A fate would ensure that there are no customs barriers between the UK and continental Europe, what all the parties Involved is located. At the same time, however, the customs Union includes the customs duties, common uniform on the Outside. The British government, however, talks for months about wanting to own free-trade agreements with the United States, India, Australia, and who always complete. With the trade Minister, Liam Fox, there is a man in Mays government Cabinet. He would be largely unnecessary if the British adopted the customs Union.

The hard Brexit is the model to expect. It is advised this is Sand in the wheels of trade between the island and the continent – in the Form of customs duties, as well as other “non-tariff” barriers. If only a few granules or a shovel way, no one knows, as long as the British and the EU have not agreed on a new bilateral trade rules. Less trade means less prosperity for both sides. No beautiful prospects.

Messy, or reasonable?

is Conceivable a different scenario that you might call the destructive Brexit. In this course, it would not create both sides, although hard, but at least orderly separation. The divorce process is then to the war of the roses. To argue about because the valuable negotiating time is wasted, about whether and how many billions have to pay extra to open contributions by the British, nor in the Brussels Club’s coffers. Or because it is not possible, pragmatic transitional periods for the exit to be agreed, which will help to limit the damage.

mind you: It doesn’t have to be so. Perhaps mind and a sense of responsibility to keep on both sides of the reason, property the upper hand. Exclude the Chaos-Brexit, unfortunately, is not.


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