Tuesday, 24. January 2017
on the very first day in office, US President, Trump will blow off the TRANS-Pacific trade agreement (TPP). Also, the North American free trade zone Nafta, he has by the short and curlies. The suck the US and make Mexico the big beneficiaries, he said. However, the opposite is the case.
Looks Donald Trump on Mexico, he sees a winner. The U.S. President in the election, has said the fight again and again. “Mexico wins against us,” was one of his slogans. The apparent proof of this is the trade surplus of the neighbouring country to the United States. Blame Nafta, Trump, the North American free trade zone of the United States with its neighbors, Canada and Mexico. The have sucked Jobs to Mexico and to export the surplus of the Central Americans. Not a loser in the United States for a long time. And Mexico is just a winner. Because the bottom line is that the agreement has improved the situation for the people and the economy in Mexico. On The Contrary.
It was a historical novel, the contract, as in 1994, with Canada and the United States, two developed industrial States with an emerging market country, Mexico, in a free trade zone. Piece by piece, the tariffs fell away, the gates were opened, the US-products spilled on the Mexican market.
Mass-exported, for example, a US Farmer your cheap, also with GMO produced Corn to Mexico. There are countless small-scale farmers had grown this until then, even, could not then compete with the cheap prices of the new competition from “El Norte”. It is estimated that by the year 2000, a Million farmers became unemployed. The Mexican government decreased subsidies and the farmers are no longer fixed quantities bought from, aggravated the situation. Many left their villages and moved to the cities. Or the same in the USA, where they worked then, possibly, to fields that produced for Export to Mexico.
Easy to US workers suffered
Trump would say now, that the U.S. industry invested heavily in Mexico to relocate Jobs from the United States in the low-wage country. After all, the US investments in Mexico increased from 1993 to 2013 to 564 per cent to a total of 101 billion dollars. According to his calculations, were lost in the first decade of the agreement, perhaps between 300,000 and one Million jobs. Most of them were low-skilled workers in the manufacturing industry. In the past ten to twelve years, the situation was back to normal and the number of jobs reached the level of pre-Nafta-Start. The wage level fell and rose in the same periods of time, and landed for the low-skilled and finally back to the Pre-Nafta level.
Just the simple workers in the United States have a roller-coaster ride, at the end of which she stood, adjusted for inflation, again like in the beginning. The enthusiasm for trump’s promises to change all that, surprised since. But all of that was really the Nafta effect? It’s hard to say, because at the same time factories in the United States have been modernized and made more efficient. Automation played a role, which would have made workers without specialized training anyway superfluous. That the level of wages in spite of productivity gains remained at a low level, could be to do with the constant threat had to shift the production to Mexico. Anyway, one should not exaggerate the Nafta as an explanation for crises of the US economy – total trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for only five percent of the gross domestic product of the United States.
Mexican workers even more
For the Mexican labour market, Nafta was suffered, however, clearly is more of a curse than a blessing – not only for the unemployed, small farmers. Because many of the newly created Jobs were poorly paid. This is especially true for the textile factories along the common border, the so-called “Maquiladoras”. There, toil workers against low-wage for the US market. In 1998, the wage level in Mexico to 27 percent has dropped in comparison to the time before Nafta, says a study. Unlike in the US, the level of wages rebounded, the gap between rich and poor grew even stronger. The Scientific service of the Bundestag evaluated in the past year, studies on the agreement. “The Mexican labour market is considered in the present studies to conform the losers of the agreement”, – stated there.
it is noticeable, However, that Mexico exports more to the USA than it imported. The most important role in the Import of crude oil. Figures from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) show that the United States had a Surplus from 2011 to 2013, on your side, if it were to be crude oil. 2014, the balance sheet would have been compensated. Moreover, the Mexican crude oil is processed and often in the refineries on the U.S. Gulf coast next, and then part as a gasoline back to Mexico and sold back to be what some of the Mexicans, for their part, feel cheated. To say it Trumps the language of The duty-free Import of Mexican Oil is a good Deal for the United States.
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Add to that that US Auto and machinery manufacturers, supply chains have to Mexico, rebuilt and parts happen on several occasions, the border to be processed, where this is done the most efficient. According to one estimate, up to 40 percent of the Mexican exports in the United States are more parts that had previously been from the North introduced processed. American workers have worked itself out.
That Mexico is now the major beneficiary of Nafta, is not true – at least if one takes the Bulk of the population. If Donald Trump now wants to negotiate in fact, the agreements, should Mexico take joyfully. And with export taxes on crude oil and import duties for Corn are threatening. Then Mexico would probably be the better Deal for themselves. But Trump could still achieve one of his goals. When it comes to the Mexicans better, not more, perhaps, as many in the North. Then he could save his wall on the border.