Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Is Poland’s economy is built on growth fraud? – FAZ – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Poland shall apply at the latest since the global financial crisis as a new power centre in Central and Eastern Europe. In the past few years, the economy grew by more than 3 percent a year. Now the success story could get, however, significant scarring, at least if one follows the recent statements of the Minister of Finance Mateusz Morawiecki. To the start of the week, the politicians of the strongest government party law and justice (PiS), the data for the determination of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the past, fraud by tax significantly distorts

Sven Astheimer author: Sven Astheimer, an editor in the business, responsible for the “profession and Chance”.

Morawiecki, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, referring to the years 2014 and 2015, so the final stages of the previous government. According to him, the economy may have been calculated performance up to the equivalent of 7 billion euros. For 2015, that would mean that GDP would be revised growth of 3.6 percent to just 1.9 percent.

infographic / the Polish economy

In the case of the incidents it comes to VAT fraud. In Poland, this tax will be refunded for exported goods. Organised gangs have forged especially for electronic goods, papers and smart phones, or hard drives instead sold on the domestic market. Such incidents are not new.

estimates The consulting firm PWC, the Polish government escaped, therefore, only in the year 2015, around 12 billion euros (equivalent to 2.9 percent of GDP). Similar cases of fraud involving motor fuels or steel are known. The Polish tax law is also considered to be complicated. The basic rate for VAT was increased in 2011 to 23 per cent. In addition, two reduced rates of 8 and 5 percent, as well as a complete remission, about specific tourism apply to services or segments of the transport sector.

In the Polish media and among Economists was discussed on Tuesday whether the tax shenanigans have really the by the Minister of Finance in the space provided, the effect on the statistics. Bohdan Wyzniekiewicz from the Institute for market economy research expects a maximum with a subsequent reduction of GDP by 0.5 percent. Other economists anticipate a smaller impact, because, simply put, although the contribution of foreign trade to the economic meltdown performance by the manipulated export statistics, on the other hand, the sale of goods in the domestic market, the increases in domestic consumption and the gap is closing.

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The Polish statistical office reported in a first opinion, that to date no revised Figures for the corresponding period were available. Therefore, the authority wants to write to their preliminary Figures. A request of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung remained unanswered.

the eyes of The observer are now with voltage on the 31. January, when the authority figures the growth for the fourth quarter and full-year 2016. Originally, the economy had been said for the first year of the government of Minister-President Beata Szydlo growth of 3.6 percent. Long ago, it is clear that this target will be missed. In the third quarter, the increase amounted to only 2.5 percent. Thus, the national-conservative government runs the risk of significantly worse than its liberal predecessor. The party, PiS party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski was started with the promise to make the allegedly darbende Polish economy strong again.

Szydlo, defended in an Interview, the former economic development and announced plans to speak with her Deputy and Finance Minister on the implementation of the Plan for sustainable economic development and the schedules. The Plan provides for, among other things, a strengthening of the industry, investments in new technologies, as well as tax cuts. In this scenario, it is speculated that in Warsaw, behind the possible Revision of growth data could to put this point in time, a conscious maneuver by the government. Because the data for 2014 and 2015 were revised down, from a percentage growth for 2016 from the lower base higher. And the PiS would have kept her promise.


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