Friday, November 4, 2016

New tax estimate: Wolfgang Schäuble, the More of the gold nugget.

Wolfgang Schäuble on Friday, before he presented the Numbers to the current control estimate, in his Ministry, a group of children a fairy tale read aloud. This has impressed the Federal Minister of Finance, so that he brought in the press conference, his household, and afterwards a policy in the sentence: “We are better than the Hans in the luck with the nugget dealt with.” In fact, some of this was for a Minister of Finance in the past few years, a fairy tale, in spite of the drastic financial crisis after 2008.

in Particular, the policy of the Central banks has contributed to the fact that Schäuble will be remembered, not only as a master of the black Zero in the story, but even Surpluses made. “Of course, the low interest rate environment is helping us,” he said. So the policy of Central Bank chief Mario Draghi, Schäuble nevertheless, recently has been criticized.

so a fairy tale is not going to be needed in the coming years, however, more. The times, as the expected increase in the budgets from estimate to estimate is higher, over first of all. Schäuble’s statement: The “dynamics of the potential labour force is slowed down”, the usage is now so high that further increases are on the current expectations, probably. However, the Federal government, the Länder and the local authorities could expect in the coming years, with the “solid revenue”.

Rising gross income

This is not least due to the fact that the tax estimator increases, with solid gains in the gross income calculation: in 2016, there will be 3.8 percent more, in the coming year, despite a somewhat lower economic growth is still 3.7 percent. Accordingly, the consumer is likely to remain at least stable.

a Total of can calculate the Federal government, States and municipalities this year, with 4.3 billion euros more than in the estimate from the may forecast. More precisely, The countries with 3.2 billion euros more, Plus the Federal government is 1.4 billion and that of municipalities in 700 million. Overall, the revenues of all levels of government should be in this year 695,5 billion euros. The mark of 700 billion will be cracked in the coming year, and by 2020 it should be more than 800 billion.

the gold nugget then it will not perhaps be quite so big, because Schäuble is working. Because any tax cuts are not included in the estimate, of course. The CDU politician is aiming for, but a discharge in promises for the election campaign in the coming year. The scope Schäuble hinted on Friday, once again, of 0.5 percent of economic output, that is 15 to 16 billion euros. After all, the tax ratio in Germany (i.e. the sum of taxes rose during his term of office in Relation to the gross domestic product) slightly, as he confessed himself.

the greens and the Left calling for more investments

to increase The Green suggested Schäuble, instead of producing Surpluses but rather the expenditure. “There is no sensible investment strategy by the Federal Minister of Finance”, said Bundestag Deputy Kerstin Andreae. Similarly, the coalition partner, the missing is also a “medium – and long-term investment strategy” of the Minister of Finance. For the SPD financial politician, Cansel Kiziltepe, it is time to increase the state’s investment. “Because only those with investment-related growth impulses can ensure the medium and long term for sustained economic growth.” The Left-financial policy-makers Richard Pitterle said: “Without massive state investment in infrastructure, education and research, without a massive strengthening of the domestic demand through higher wages and the tax fantasies of the Minister of Finance to burst soon like a soap bubble.”

The Federation of German industry sees in the face of the estimates, “plenty of room to invest more in the future”. However, BDI-CEO Markus Kerber thinks more like a “fiscal funding” for the company, in order to support the structural transformation of the digitization. Reiner wooden nail, head of the Federation of taxpayers, used the new Figures to reaffirm the Credo of his Association: “The policy should restrain their Ausgabenwut and a part of the tax revenue to give back to the citizens.”

budget, politicians to dampen expectations

Somewhat more cautious in the reactions of the leading budget coalition politicians have sounded. The routes currently in the Etatberatungen for 2017 – which forecasts for the years thereafter. The SPD Deputy Johannes Kahrs to the fact that the game will no longer grow and the tax estimate for the time a small Minus compared to the may results after 2018 even Numbers. In the case of the proclamation of relief should therefore be careful. “And also for the upcoming year, estimated revenues are largely planned by the in the meantime decided relief for families, as well as the countries in connection with refugee costs,” he said.

According to Kahrs Schäuble creates the desired, to balance the budget in 2018, only a global Reduction in spending of nearly five billion euros. Union group Vice Ralph Brinkhaus said: “The current tax estimate, largely confirmed the results of the spring estimate. Room for additional output requests on the Federal side.”


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