In the last few years has seen the labour market in Germany a strong economic recovery, unemployment is at its lowest level since reunification. But that could now be brought to an end: experts predict in the coming year, a hefty Dent.
Although don’t expect just with a heavy Jobkrise. After an initial sideways movement the need to adjust in the second half of 2017 but markedly rising unemployment, the forecast of economists of German big banks in a survey by the German press Agency. In addition to the slightly weaker economic growth will contribute to the growing number of unemployed refugees.
In September 2016 were 2.6 million of working age (5.9 percent) without a job, the maximum value after the reunification is just under 4.9 million unemployed (13 %) and dates back to the year 2005.
According to the forecast of Economists, will rise the number of job seekers in 2017, an average between 70,000 and 90,000. Commerzbank economist Eckart Tuchtfeld even expects an increase of 160,000, compared to 2016.
the long-term unemployed hard
“The reduction of unemployment in the future will be a little bumpier,” he is convinced. The deck of the refugee immigration, but also to the increasing problems, to convey the long-term unemployed in work.
Heiko Peters of Deutsche Bank sees the similar. The Economist acknowledges that it is more difficult, the impact of refugee immigration on the labour market in the next year. “But we already have the assumption that in the coming year, many refugees in the unemployment change,” he said.
Many of the 2015 arrived refugees are currently still in language and professional preparation courses. During this time, you are not considered unemployed.
“The economy is not strengthened”
the labour market will be Charged according to Tuchtfelds evaluation also in the year 2017, the expected weakening of the economic situation. The first signs that he sees now: “The economy is not fixed.”
That the weaker economic growth over the short or long term consequences for the labour market, is also available for DZ Bank economist Michael Holstein out of the question: “If we have next year an economic growth of 1.5 percent, then the employment may grow by 2 percent.”
There are optimistic voices
Far more optimistic in Alliance, by contrast, economist Rolf Schneider. Unlike most of his colleagues, he continues to expect a robust labour market in the year 2017. With him for the coming year forecast of 2.7 million persons in unemployment in the coming year would rise in the average only around 10,000.
main reason: The number of job seekers refugees will rise in 2017 to be weaker than expected, some would need more time to be in the integration and vocational preparation courses for the German professional life made to fit, believes Schneider. For a boost to the economy. Drivers of growth will be more Export, he says.
For October, expect the economists, almost unanimously, with a further seasonal decline in the unemployment figures of around 50,000 to 55,000 to approximately 2.56 million. This would be around 96,000 less than a year ago. The October benefits, according to expert assessment, in the autumn of recovery before Frost and cold, especially in construction, in horticulture and gastronomy, lead to increased lay-offs.