Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Energy – The next oil shock is coming Sü -


  • The International energy Agency warns of a massive Investment backlog.
  • Should also be in the coming year, so little in the Oil investing, a new Phase of extremely high Oil prices is very likely.
  • accurate forecast, the IEA’s experts.

On this cycle count. First of all, the money is missing, then investments, and finally, there is too little Oil. If it continues, the International energy Agency released today by the world energy Outlook predicts that the next oil price shock will be only a matter of time.

The report of the Paris think-tank is one of the most renowned publications on the future of the energy markets. And while in the short term, with the Oil prices the prices of gasoline and Diesel is relatively low are likely to remain, warn the IEA’s experts is clear: If it goes on like this, the next period of extremely high Oil prices.

a Good two years ago, as the then expensive oil has always been cheaper. In the meantime, the price had fallen by up to three-quarters. The reason is a persistent Oversupply in the world market, is favored first of all, thanks to the Boom of shale oil production in the United States and, later, a record-setting Oil production in Russia.

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Despite the low prices, the delivery volume also increased in the 14 in the oil cartel Opec-organized States to a record level. At the same time, the demand rose less rapidly than in the light of the rapid price decline of organisations such as the IEA had expected. Now the bearings are in the world full, the Oil States produce the bet and the struggle for market share and the consumer will not be able to soak up as much as there is to much Oil. How long it stays on?

For oil producers, traders and analysts, there is hardly a more important question, but nobody knows the exact answer. The experts of the IEA, the current market trend is sufficient, however, to formulate a clear warning. In the past year, so a few conventional conveyor were developed for projects how, since the 1950s, not more, according to the latest energy Outlook. In the current year, has changed it yet…. “This should continue up to and including 2017, or thereafter,” the IEA, “will writes, it is increasingly unlikely that supply and demand can be balanced without rapid price increases.”

Oil prices Remain but continue to be so low, are Oil companies and countries continue to invest much too little to the increasing global demand for the commodity in some years to cover. The current Situation would be reversed, until then, Made a significant Oversupply, a huge gap between demand and available crude oil would. To prevent this, said Tim Gould, the main author of energy Outlook, “would be an unprecedented effort to regain lost ground and to meet the demand.” The time is running out.

lack of money means lack of Oil

Behind this delayed cycle is a characteristic of the oil Market. To from newly developed sources of Oil flows, pass after the initial investment in three to six years. This estimate refers to conventional sources, i.e. projects which are not in the deep-sea drilling by means of Fracking shale rocks are broken open or with huge excavators, tar sand has to be removed. The Oil production increased in spite of low prices, was also due to the many investments already made. Anyone who has already sunk several billion dollars in a project, in a hurry, regardless of the price development, it also finished.

conversely, money is translated today will fail in a few years, in a lack of Oil. The Interaction of these delays in phases of high and low prices. In the meantime, these cycles have become even more complex: shale oil producers in the United States are able to react very quickly to price changes. Their support is worth a certain price, is flowing within months additional Oil. Violent price movements, there is not, therefore, in the short term.

but in the period of a few years, emphasized now by the IEA: the Oil production in conventional sources of stable, constantly has to be in existing oil Fields as well as in new projects invested in. Each of the developed oil Well is with time less. “As a result, the production of a whole Iraq is lost currently every two years,” said Gould. Iraq is the second largest oil Producer in the Opec and is estimated to currently promotes 4.7 million barrels of Oil a day (a Barrel = about 159 litres). That is more than five percent of the global demand.

to predict the near and long term future of the energy markets previously, the IEA, with specific forecasts and instead, work with different scenarios. A new oil price shock requires in the most likely scenario is that the global demand will continue to rise moderately. Alone the freight and air travel industries, as well as the chemical industry is likely to ensure already. A breakthrough of electric mobility and a continuation of the boom of renewable energies, the IEA experts believe that although likely to a new period of very high Oil prices after 2020 will not, however, can prevent.

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