In an uncertain environment, Germany’s economy surprisingly well. The International monetary Fund (IMF) has screwed in its latest report on the situation of the world economic (WEO), the Outlook for the German economy to the top – even if only slightly. For this year, the Washington experts expect a growth of 1.7 instead of 1.6 percent. Next year the economy will grow by 1.4 instead of the previously forecasted 1.2%.
What looks good on paper, however, for the strength of the German economy. Around the world, the Fund is far more cautious. For the USA, the largest economy in the world, the experts at your advance lowered even say dramatically, to 1.6 percent growth this year. Were expected to be 2.2 percent.
in the coming year, the United States will develop less traction than previously thought. The IMF is expected in 2017, a growth of 2.2 percent, after 2.5 percent had been expected. Chief economist Maurice Obstfeld spoke of a “disappointment”.
No wonder it happens due to the US weakness below the line, global. For 2016, the Fund of world Economics predicts growth to remain subdued at 3.1 per cent. Next year the economy is expected to grow by about 3.4 percent. The IMF is, so much is made of the statements Obstfelds clear, with the development of anything other than satisfied. The policy had to do more.
Emerging and developing countries as drivers of growth
Exactly on this weekend the theme of this year’s autumn meeting in Washington. What can be done about the global growth weakness do? And even more important: Who pays for it?
such As the distribution of roles in this ongoing Black-Peter-will look in-game, without having to look in a crystal ball to predict. The Anglo-Saxons and southern Europeans will demand of the financially well-off countries such as Germany is a stronger economic commitment.
are expected expenditure, Higher government investment and consumption, may also be tax reductions. The Germans will, in turn, references to the investment program and the need for structural reforms to emphasize. Wolfgang schäuble’s message will be that there are still many nation-States are much more highly indebted. And the only real reforms that would bring sustainable growth.
Schäuble believes that the Emerging and developing countries would have to be the driver of growth. Not the economically saturated the West.
That IMF researchers Obstfeld will give with this Position, can confidently be doubted. “The growth is already too low for too long,” he said ahead of the meeting. He calls, therefore, for greater impetus to the policy as well as reforms in the labour market and the removal of trade barriers.
a boost for opponents of globalization
What sounds to many observers like the same old same old of the past decades, has a serious reason: In many countries of the world with serious anti-globalization movements, which have long led to impairment in world trade. The success of the Brexit advocates in the United Kingdom is just one of the many signs of the waning attractiveness of a globalized world. Also, the high sympathy values for the US presidential candidate Donald Trump.
In a detailed analysis of the funds, warns of the consequences of new trade barriers and globalization obstacles. “Global trade has declined significantly in recent years,” it says. It was remarkable. The reasons for this weakness need to be understood better, in order to find the right political response to it.
The IMF distinguishes between two phases. Once, shortly after the collapse of the financial markets in 2008 and the subsequent great recession, there was also a of the world trade. However, only for a short time, and in connection with the global growth overall. Since 2012, but the growth rates are declining in international trade. And only a few countries are exempt.
First analysis result according to the IMF, especially the slower growth of the investment became the main reasons for the lower Plus in the global trade. Also have slowed down the pace of liberalisation. Also, the structure of trade barriers worsen the situation.
What follows from this, we can see: The IMF experts are calling for the removal of trade barriers, to accelerate the liberalisation of goods, services and labour markets. Such Calls have reverberated in the past few years, however, largely without consequences.
Perhaps because of the success of the economy recovery to a few people, such as the Fund. Opponents of globalization – no matter what their political Stripes are, of course, boost.