Sunday, October 30, 2016

Calm before the Brexit-Tsunami: The long-term consequences of a Brexit to be underestimated

decided, As a UK exit from the EU, there was quite an Outcry. Meanwhile, many players are more relaxed. But labour market experts warn that the Brexit-will follow underestimated.

Richard Jackman about believes that the high rate of employment in the UK over the negative long-term consequences of Brexit vote deceives. The Professor at the London School of Economics, the British economy is currently benefiting from the advantages of the Brexit vote sharp drop in the sterling rate. For example, because British Goods and services have become for foreign buyers cheaper.

The disadvantages of a Brexit vote would unfold their effect only with a lag, Jackman said the German press Agency.

Fears are unfounded?

The employment rate in the UK since the vote of the British EU exit on 23. June to a record level increased. Last, they amounted to 74.5 percent. Brexit advocates, therefore, believe that Fears of the economic damage of the proposed EU phase-out to be unfounded.

Jackman, however, cautions that the labour market is reacting only very slowly to changes. Still, there is no pressure on the companies, because the UK did leave the EU. This could change but after the completion of the Brexit.

number of unemployed significantly

rose Also believes the Anglo-American labour market expert David Blanchflower that the Brexit is cost-the bottom line is Jobs. He even speaks of the “calm before the Brexit-Tsunami”. Because overall, more people would have taken a work, to hide the record of employment that the number of unemployed had increased since the Brexit Referendum scary.

The big concern, wrote Blanchflower in the Guardian, was that prices would rise from next year, faster than wages. By then, the Brexit would arrive-follow the people.

British economy surprised currently

Yet, the British economy has shown despite the Brexit vote is quite robust. On Thursday, the UK statistics authority published a first estimate for the gross domestic product of the country in the third quarter. With a growth of 0.5-cut for the British economy doing better than expected.

After the close decision of a British exit from the EU on 23. June had suggested some indicators of an economic shock. The British Central Bank had expected in August, with a far more drastic reduction to a Mini-growth of 0.1 percent. However, these fears have not been confirmed.

factors could slump

Responsible for the relatively good performance especially the service sector, which grew last 0.8 per cent. A particularly strong growth, according to the authority, in the three months to September, in the sector of Transport and communication. Other areas, such as construction, Agricultural, and industrial fared worse.

Also contributed to the persistently high demand, according to experts, the relatively good result. “It seems certain that the growth in the third quarter, is also based in large part on the willingness of consumers to continue to spend money,” said Howard Archer, of the think-tank IHS Global Insight, the BBC.

Responsible for this were the continued strong purchasing power and a high level of employment. Both of these factors, which could break labour market experts such as Jackman and Blanchflower, soon.


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