Wednesday, December 14, 2016

The Fed: The second string of Janet Yellen – Handelsblatt

interest rate meeting of the U.S. Central Bank: the expectation of the experts: Yellen will announce the key interest rate by 25 points

Düsseldorflifting point 20 o’clock German time, the US Federal Reserve Bank, that it increases key interest rates by a quarter of a percent to a range between 0.5 and 0.75 percent. Everything else would certainly be a big Surprise. Economists and investors will then pay close attention to the Details of the opinion and the comments of Fed chair Janet Yellen, which will begin half an hour later.

“more important than the rate hike itself, is likely to be the ‘Wording’ of the future course of the monetary authorities,” says LBBW Analyst Uwe prank. However, many questions arise. The first is whether the decision falls unanimously. In the case of the first interest rate increase since the financial crisis exactly a year ago, Yellen had spoken previously diligently with your colleagues on the monetary policy Committee to reach a unanimous decision – with success. In the last few months, Yellen’s two votes against. Esther George of the Fed in Kansas, and Loretta Mester of Cleveland disagreed, because they wanted a further interest rate increase.

Central banks and negative interest rates

  • Rate of the main refinancing operations (interest rate): 0.0%

    Deposit interest rate for banks: -0.1%

  • set the main refinancing operations (interest rate): -0,75 percent (15.01.2016)

    Deposit interest rate for banks: -0,75%

  • set the main refinancing operations (interest rate) staggered: 0.05 percentage

    Deposit interest rate for banks: Down 0.65 percent

  • set the main refinancing operations (interest rate): -0.5%

    Deposit interest rate for banks: -0.5%

  • set the main refinancing operations (interest rate): 0.0%

    Deposit interest rate for banks: 0.4%

one Of them is to be expected, therefore, today, Wednesday, no Opposition. It has made a mark in the Public, but also no voting money to politicians with warnings of an early increase. Anything other than a unanimous decision, a Surprise would be.

for their caution well-known Federal Reserve will do everything other than drawing the reins too early. The decisive factor is the speed with which the most powerful Central Bank in the world is forcing the change in this new Phase of monetary policy. Currently, it is expected for 2017, with two further increases.

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Janet is Yellen, as usual, at best, very cautious hints on the further course of the Fed and the stress, everything depends on the economic data. Exciting, whether it arrives in hints on the market reactions and the changes in the economic Outlook since the election of Donald Trump to the US President. Since then, have set markets and Economists on a higher growth is primarily driven by rising government debt and a greater risk of inflation.

The stock markets are celebrating the victory, still, in the case of bonds, yields have risen significantly. This would argue for a somewhat faster increase in key interest rates in the United States. Previously, Yellen had stressed, however, is always that an adjustment should require very carefully.

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With Donald Trump as a future President of the United States, the Situation has changed. “All the President’s wish, in fact, low interest rates,” said Martin Moryson, chief economist at Sal. Oppenheim. “This is the Fed, Mr Trump will not do it as a Favor. It will be interesting how he responds to it." Also, the Central Bank does not know what the economy will have to take political course, a President-elect Trump. The most well-known projects, however, could be inflation. Therefore, much of this talk that the next interest rate get started faster and steeper be said Moryson.

in addition to the interest rate decision will be known, the Fed, the forecasts of the members of the monetary policy Committee. They give information about how the Monetary policy makers to assess the development of growth, interest rates and Inflation. Here, too, investors will be looking for small changes that may have been the turning point in the markets after the presidential election reflect this. But it may well be that the “Dots” on how the forecasts are called, are little changed, because the money politicians still have no clear picture of the new Situation.


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