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Peking – Surprisingly weak trade figures in China, new Concerns about the state of the second-largest economy reignited. According to Thursday’s data submitted to the customs administration in Beijing, the exports fell in US Dollar terms in September, to 10 percent.
The imports decreased by 1.9% and were thus significantly below the expectations of analysts.
After a light in August, for the first time since November of 2014, both exports and imports in the same month, they rose again, under the now submitted quarterly, to highlight data that China’s Stalled economy is still far from over the hill. From January to September, an export minus of 7.5 percent, the imports decreased compared to the first nine months of the previous year of 8.2 percent.
“The competition situation is becoming increasingly difficult,” said the Beijing Economics Professor Hu Xingdou. The exports were under pressure because of rising wages in China, more and more producers to countries in Southeast Asia or India would have to Dodge. The weak imports would clarify, however, how limited the domestic demand.
another Problem with the Economist saw in the last of the rapidly increased real estate prices in many large cities of the country. “Because the house prices are rising so fast, money is deducted from the real economy, and invested in real estate.”
Only for over a year depreciation of the Yuan also helped that the trade figures at least in your own country currency calculated is not quite so bleak were: exports fell accordingly, in September, to 5.6 percent, and imports in Yuan expected by 2.2 percent.
After China’s economy grew last year with a Plus of 6.9 percent as slow as since 25 years, should be the average growth, according to the head of the government Li Keqiang in the next five years at least 6.5 percent. Instead of the “workbench of the world”, to the companies in the country more innovative. By a stronger service sector to boost domestic consumption.
Many experts believe, however, it is increasingly unlikely that Beijing will succeed in this conversion smoothly. The list of sites is long: in addition to the fast rise in real estate prices and high industry Overcapacity, Beijing must find a means against the last rapid rise in debt, which is, according to experts, the main reason for this is that the growth is not least turn out to be even weaker.
Especially companies with high debt pressure. On Tuesday, the US rating Agency Standard & Poor’s (S& warned;P) before drastic losses of Chinese banks due to bad loans. China’s financial institutions could require, due to non-performing loans from the year 2020 up to 11.3 trillion Yuan (1.5 trillion euros) in fresh capital if the debt excesses should not weaken in the corporate sector.
The possible costs could therefore represent up to 16 percent of nominal economic output of China in the past year. The debt growth in China is in the longer term are not sustainable.