It had were unloading something of a carnival atmosphere, as dozens of people on Wednesday crates of powers at the entrance of the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe. They belong to the civil lawsuit against the of the European Union (EU) and Canada FTA to be concluded Ceta.
NGOs had almost 125,000 copies for a stake in the complaint “No to Ceta” collected. Even before the handover a human chain was formed, and when the crates piled gradually before the Court, surged applause. Ceta and TTIP are on the verge of becoming an ideological controversial issue.
This is not in the resistance to Ceta primarily to the FTA with Canada , What should really be undermined, is the agreement with the US TTIP. Because that, unlike Ceta affect all our lives.
Ceta fails, there will be almost certainly no agreement with the Americans. And even with TTIP probably drives to many not afraid of arbitration courts, chloride in chicken and the loss of protected brands such as Black Forest ham. These are only metaphors.
It’s about deep distrust of what felt without citizen participation negotiate political and economic elites. To the fear of an even greater US influence. And that we are on the winning side against an ever limits looser globalization, the increasingly tearing the gap between rich and poor.
Germans were a majority, has is often hidden , And that we failure of TTIP economic growth and everyone can cost a lot of money, as well.
At almost every study, there is a counter-study
numbers, statistics and studies on the economic impact of TTIP there are many – and that almost as much criticism and counter-studies. Analysis of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) enjoys going correctly quoted and interpreted correctly, even among critics of the FTA with the United States some recognition.
it states TTIP bring “an economic asset for the EU of 119 billion euros per year, for the US 95 billion. Translated, this means an additional, discretionary income of 545 euros for a family of four in the EU and 655 for a corresponding US family. On average. “
During the open day of the Federal Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel answered questions from citizens. For FTA TTIP he said frankly. The negotiations have failed Source: Reuters
the European Commission relies on this study when they are in their” “writes to TTIP that the FTA with the United States’ explanation of the economic analysis on wages and salaries both skilled and less skilled workers would have a positive impact and this would each increase by about 0.5 percent.
The CEPR study has often been misinterpreted, even by high-ranking EU representatives. President Jean-Claude Juncker once incomes increase selling of 545 Euro as a “per year”. This is fatal because it gives critics ammunition.
trade associations have given the impression of an immediate, positive impact by the FTA. Both are wrong, it is hardly a scientist who has dealt with the subject. Named sums as the 545 euro will probably only achieved in 2027 by CEPR.
TTIP would the US and EU economic boost
Only change restrictions as this remains that the bulk of the analysis that does not come from the environment TTIP critical NGOs, as a consequence of the FTA predicts an intensification of trade between the two largest economies in the world. This climb the economic performance of the countries concerned, new jobs would arise and people could end up paying more money in your pocket.
that not all countries in the EU the same amount of benefit from TTIP, is clear. And that an export nation like Germany has more of an edge thereof, is expected to be on hand. That in turn benefit in Germany, one more and the other less of TTIP, belongs however to the truth. Only: That it characterized this country workers is economically worse when the Convention enters into force, is hard to believe one of the professionals
In addition to the many organizations and institutions. who calculated the economic impact of TTIP, has especially the Ifo Institute excelled. It has launched a study for the Bertelsmann Foundation written and another on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics -. The house of SPD leader and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, who announced at the weekend with skeptical words the project TTIP as failed
Meanwhile, both studies were also concluded that a comprehensive FTA, real per capita income (measured by real gross domestic product per capita) in the long term significantly increase in the participating countries would , The largest increase is expected with 13.4 to 13.8 percent for the United States, for the EU and for Germany it is almost five percent. For the EU total, an increase from 2.6 to 9.7 percent was calculated.
TTIP can income in Germany increased 4.5 percent
the economic benefits can only unfold that the experts stress, if it succeeds, a” socialize far-reaching trade agreement “. The chances are getting smaller in view of the stalled negotiations. The likelihood that the Americans and Europeans try to complete a sort TTIP light in order to save at least the basic idea, is growing.
But if at the end of a comprehensive are trade agreements between EU and USA, one goes in Ifo Institute continues by significant positive effects from – specifically for the German households. “We have looked at what effects have other trade agreements and determines how TTIP could act. The result: We see a potential of two to 4.5 percent higher income per capita in Germany when TTIP is completed,” says Gabriel Felbermayr which conducts the Ifo center for Foreign Trade, with respect to the “world”. “This does not mean that there will be precisely this increase in income. We are talking about the possibilities, just the potential.”
Felbermayr, who has authored several studies on TTIP, bases its calculations on past trade agreements and their economic impact in the countries concerned. “Trade agreements have led over the longer term to greater prosperity of the people of the respective economies,” he recognized.
However, the emphasis is on “the longer term”. “In the short term, the conclusion of such agreements lead to adjustment strains,” says Felbermayer. “Because it does not benefit everyone equally them when tariffs fall and trade barriers are broken down.”
The United States will benefit more from TTIP
Export-driven industries will be strengthened through agreements such TTIP. In sectors where is heavily imported, hand making competition more intense, companies are under pressure to people dismissed. “Trade Agreement of the dimension as TTIP accelerate structural change – and just knows losers” can be done, but find in export-oriented enterprises new jobs, says Felbermayr overlooking the corporate landscape, not to the workers
“Under Fire also heard that the United States will benefit from more TTIP, as Europeans,” admits the Ifo expert. “Americans get a kick up access to 28 markets, which are still far from being fully harmonized even today. The Europeans in return receive easy access to the largest economy in the world, but only to a market.” The fact that US households have more of TTIP, the calculations of CEPR showed.
Distrust TTIP issue may be large, because it at many people is assumed, it would accelerate the inequality, says Felbermayr. It would make the rich richer and the poor poorer. “In fact, uses globalization to those most who already look good. But the bottom line, we will, for example, by TTIP have no significant losers, but those that characterized the end felt have higher incomes and others who benefit only slightly from it,” so Felbermayr. But is the latter so really losers?
The US spread possible TTIP gains better
In the US, are those who allegedly do not benefit from TTIP, better integrated. There is the Trade Adjustment Assistance, aims to create the certain balance. In the EU, a similar instrument, could create the confidence is missing. The Globalisation Adjustment Fund is not equivalent, also knows him no. “But the governments have indeed the possibility to compensate for the different developments in the gross and net income. You could adjust the income tax rates, could redistribute more,” says Felbermayr.
” Since it takes by TTIP definitely be no losers that would tackle more useful to formulate a critique of the agreement, “he says – and aims it, without having to pronounce it explicitly, on SPD leader and German Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel. He had come in for his pessimistic remarks to TTIP much criticism.
However, the studies of the Ifo Institute are not without controversy. Many already disturbs the classification, which is based on the impact of existing trade agreements. Thus, for example, the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the US, Canada and Mexico, that a very high discrepancy between the predicted and actual results or effects on prosperity, jobs and wages can prevail. Twenty years after the conclusion of the NAFTA agreement, there is no general agreement about its consequences.
“German think you have TTIP not necessary”
in addition, ignore all those who rely on studies such as the Ifo – to defend TTIP – the actual motives just the critics in Germany. The worry about the European standards in health and environmental protection, to customer-friendly solutions in consumer protection and in packaging and labeling requirements.
While in Europe, the is marked precautionary principle, food has to be tested before launch for their safety, as in the US allegedly harmful products will only be withdrawn from the market if their health risk was detected.
Another criticism of TTIP refers to special and differential rights for foreign investors. This should make it possible to sue states if they reduce their profit expectations by amendments to standards or laws.
The prospect of more money faded so obviously at many people in the country. Or how has this week said a senior representative of the EU: “The Germans just goes so well for those who believe, to have something like TTIP not necessary Only:… So is not meant in many other member countries”