The German economy is in the first half in good shape. The growth is stronger than expected. But the prospects for the coming months are less well, commented FOCUS Online expert Alexander Krüger the numbers.
The initial estimates of the Federal Statistical Office is the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Germany in the second quarter 2016 by 0.4 percent over the previous quarter. After the strong start of the year quarter, when growth had risen to 0.7 percent, above all due to the mild weather unusually strong, the rebound is much less fancy than it had previously indicated, industrial production and retail sales.
the detailed results for the GDP components to be published on 24 August. The Federal Office on Friday but already indicated that positive growth is driven largely by net exports (exports higher, slightly lower imports) have come. The private and public consumption expenditure growth have supported also. Stressful effects are mainly expected from the construction investment.
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Alexander Krüger is chief economist at Bankhaus Lampe KG. He previously worked at WestLB as an economist with a focus on Germany, the euro zone, European Central Bank and bond markets.
Economic growth is expected subside
the growth situation arises in the first half of 2016 is better than expected. Due to our defensive assessment of the global economic environment and the undigested in our view Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-shocks, we are not of the view that the pace of growth currently resistant settles at a higher level.
Instead, a part of us expected for the second half 2016 growth momentum in the first half was probably verfrühstückt. In our Growth therefore “draw” we the second half now somewhat weaker
Nevertheless. Due to the good first half of the year and in particular because of the statistical upward revisions, we are raising our GDP forecast for 2016 from 1.5 percent to 1 , 8 percent. The adjustments for the second half 2016 also affect the GDP forecast for 2017: This we reduce from 1.2 percent to 1.1 percent. The low rate is also at a high negative working-day effects back.
reforms are needed
We are further of the view that the economic downside risks are somewhat greater than the upside opportunities. The reason for this is that important growth drivers currently keep momentum for the economy and have lost. This affects the price of crude oil, whose decline has cut into thirds over 2015 the euro whose average 2016 to roughly equal of 2015 and the monetary policy that can hardly create new impetus for the economy.
Puts the Federal Government no new driver out of the hat, as it did this year with the increase in pensions by five percent, or you fall to this, the view in the growth momentum can judge only downward. That is why it is important, with overdue structural reforms to counteract dial 2017 or not.
The publication of the commentary by courtesy of Bankhaus Lampe KG. The text was published already in a transmission of Bankhaus Lampe KG
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