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29th August 2016 00:01
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007, the central banks of the world are in a state of emergency. With negative interest rates and an unprecedented flood of money trying to boost the flagging economy.But the desired effect does not occur. Even the US Federal Reserve hardly approaches the exit from the crisis mode. Also at the meeting in the scenic Jackson Hole in the wilderness of the Rocky Mountains was Fed chief Janet Yellen, the financial world in the dark about how and when it continues the initiated in the winter rate reversal.
Where do you want the course?
the monetary authorities have different views on the future course of monetary policy. On one side is the most powerful central bank in the world, the Fed. She had raised in December as the sole leading central bank for the first time since the financial crisis, interest rates, a small piece of the zero line -. After all
Since then, is the turnaround in interest rates on hold. Shortly before the legendary central bankers meeting broke remarks by Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer from speculation on a speedy sequel. “We have almost achieved our goals,” he said. Asked whether interest rates could rise in September, and whether two hikes were possible this year, he said: “What the chairman (Yellen) said today, is compatible with a ‘yes’ to both of your questions.” Yellen, however, had only said that the arguments for a rate hike had intensified in recent months, without giving a date for a possible rate hike. The Fed meets in 2016 three more times: in September, November and December
On the other hand, all other major central banks.. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan have their monetary policy is eased further. They even introduced negative interest rates, now flooding the markets by means of multi-billion dollar bond purchases with money, while the Americans scale back this program, and want to carry on the doubts still. Since the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-vote of the British and the Bank of England is on easing course, in Australia it does not look different.
Many experts expect interest rates to stay down years
is the view of the Fed this a problem, because alone they can not get ahead with their move away from crisis mode. In a globalized world, monetary authorities are interdependent. A rate cut in the euro zone weakening the euro and strengthened the dollar. Too strong dollar but is bad for the US export industry, as American products become more expensive on world markets. He is regarded as an obstacle for the Fed to raise interest rates. For by it would strengthen the dollar even further. Therefore
Most experts expect that monetary policy remains expansionary global. The low interest rates could be tamped in the long term, said Peter Kinsella, expert at Commerzbank. “Essentially, ask investors whether in interest rates, for longer low ‘soon, for always low’ is.” about the economy Peter Bofinger – Similarly, interviewed by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, experts believe. He expects that the low interest rates holding at least five years.
The loose monetary policy has been anything but a success story. Commercial banks do not give the money to the central banks in the hoped periphery in the form of loans to enterprises. It saves too much, too little investment, productivity, inflation and economic growth remain weak. And the consequences for savers are devastating.
When it comes to some central bankers as ECB chief Mario Draghi, can long anyway only profound reforms to support the economy, such as the labor market or in the pension system. But this is the most time-consuming, the most difficult and especially the most controversial way. And monetary authorities have no control over.