Too much money can a finance minister never have. This applies to Wolfgang Schäuble, the treasurer of the federation. It applies to the finance ministers of the countries. And even in the municipalities is no different. Given the revenue that for many months now been recorded in Germany, it would have the Minister of Finance and his colleagues therefore go shiny.
The reason is a stable economy, a booming labor market and falling interest costs. Interest expense for the federal debt are, for example, this year at 7.5 billion euros. A year earlier the figure was about 21 billion euros. And in the bad years of the millennium, there were nearly 40 billion euros. You have to go back in the early 80s to find similar low values in the statistics.
The German state controls 2016 that also through a good economy at third consecutive year with a budget surplus. Federal, state and local authorities and social measures in the first six months together EUR 18.5 billion more than they spent a. Such a high surplus for mid-year, after reunification never, informed the Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday. It corresponds to 1.2 percent of gross domestic product. No now acting finance politicians will be able to remember a similar situation.
“households were able to continue from a favorable employment and economic development as well as a moderate spending policy benefit, “said the Statistics Office. The gross domestic product grew in the second quarter by 0.4 percent, driven by consumption and exports.
At the beginning it was even 0.7 percent. The Bundesbank expects despite the uncertainty caused by the anti-EU vote by the British in the summer quarter with a noticeable growth.
Government revenue increased in the first six months to 27.9 billion euros or 4.2 percent. Taxes as a main source of income covered a distance above average, especially the income and wealth. Revenue from social security contributions increased by 4.2 percent.
Experts expect the black again
Sunken however, are the income from interest and received distributions – by among others the lower Bundesbank profit. Government expenditure grew by 23.5 billion euros or 3.6 percent. High output increases were in the intermediate consumption and social transfers in kind – such as for those seeking protection and asylum seekers. Investments increased by 7.7 percent.
Therefore, experts believe that the state once again in the black writing for the full year 2014 and 2015. “The revenues are going well, the interest costs continue to fall,” said tax experts Jens Boyen-Hogrefe the Kiel Institute for World Economy (IfW). “Even in the full year, there should be a surplus.”
The statisticians are more cautious with forecasts. “From the results for the first six months can be only limited conclusions on the annual earnings drag because the government balance in the second half of structurally regularly be lower,” a statement said.
economists recommend the government to invest more money. “The substantial surplus in the state budget leaves room nachzulegen for example, the government investment,” said the European chief economist at Nordea Bank, Holger Sent. “To push the investment in an aging society, we need the support from the government,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.
Politically this development for huge appetites care. Even now, the departments of the Federal Government are hard to keep in check even with their output needs. Who can, somewhat obsolete by the Federal Finance Minister. Striking that was already in the programs for refugees. Every ministry that remotely had a reference to migration and integration, put on new programs. In many cases overlap itself. In Schäuble house you therefore fears a sprawl. An evaluation of each project is urgently needed, it was some time ago in Finance.
much more subdued on the other hand led the debate on tax cuts in the federal government. For years, the finance basic relief denied. Reasons he had many: the housing crisis and the slump in the global economy. The bank bailout. The euro crisis . Finally, the many refugees who came to Germany and Europe.
“tax benefits are now offered”
Now ask Schäuble people Although tax cuts for the years 2017 and thereafter in view. However, the promise before the election in 2017. How far a new coalition is ready to implement them, is in the stars. That being said: The kolportierten twelve billion euros especially for average earners not meet user revenues, which for years occupied by the Minister thanks to the cold progression
The business representatives. therefore the Union require a significantly bolder and also previous discharge step: “the citizens of the state,” says Carsten Linnemann, the national chairman of the SME Union. “The figures show that tax relief for working people and for families are now on offer.” For those who would get state benefits, has been done a lot in recent years. For the top also. “But for those who are too boring for the headline in the newspaper, as they do every day work for which something must be done” Linnemann said.
The only question is whether he can prevail with this position. The SPD, currently coalition partner of the CDU, holding of a relief rather little. And if, then rather in the low-income earners, possibly with compensation for the loss of tax revenue through higher capital gains taxes.
the Greens in turn, this could potentially be the next coalition partners of the Union, at loggerheads in the tax issue. Baden-Württemberg’s popular Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann is against tax increases and the reintroduction of a wealth tax. His party colleague and intra-party counterparty Jürgen Trittin sees things differently. He also wants to increase the capital gains tax, “because we, despite Plus refrain important investments,” he said of the “world”. “The burden of restructuring costs we push to future generations.” Germany will be charged in truth poorer and future generations by.
The reality is however, that the state does not just use the increasing tax revenues of the past for the necessary investments Has. Instead, he has often inserted in social spending.