Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union Study: EU exit would 500,000 jobs in the UK destroy – SPIEGEL ONLINE

The prognosis is grim: The Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union would plunge Britain into a long recession and the economic cost 500,000 jobs. That is the message of British Prime Minister David Cameron and his finance minister George Osborne, who presented a study on the consequences of Brexits for the British economy. In a month the British vote on the fate of their country in the European Union.

“It would be a homemade recession,” Cameron said. If the UK, it would jeopardize all the efforts that had made the country after the financial crisis. The decision for a Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union would create an “immediate and severe shock” to the British economy, said Finance Minister George Osborne.

The analysis by the UK Treasury to the short-term consequences of the EU exit paints a pessimistic picture: Within two years after the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union at least half a million jobs would be lost in the UK. The British pound would depreciate, convey inflation and real wages of Britons would after discharge by nearly three percent lower.

Two possible shock scenarios

According to the calculations it could in the case of a Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union give two scenarios – a “shock” scenario with a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.6 percent compared to the previous assumptions. Here, the value of the pound would decline by twelve percent and unemployment to increase by about half a million. In addition, experts draw a “scenario with severe shock,” where the economic performance breaks by six percent. Here some 800,000 jobs would disappear and the pound would lose 15 percent of its value.

The British EU Financial Commissioner Jonathan Hill warned of the negative consequences for Britain’s economy in the event of a leak. “If the UK emerge, trade barriers are coming our way, and that is the British economy, the labor market and the growth hurt,” said Hill.

Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union advocates complain that the Ministry of Finance, repeatedly submit faulty analysis and not to respond to negative aspects of the whereabouts of Great Britain in the EU, for example, because of the euro crisis. “The report is biased categorically” Iain Duncan Smith said to March labor minister in Cameron’s conservative cabinet

Recent surveys show that the British will speak out more against a Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union in the vote on 23 June.: A survey by the Institute Opinium for the newspaper “Observer” currently expects 44 percent for the EU supporters, 40 percent are against it for the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union.