Negotiations in Brussels – why hook the Greece talks – Süddeutsche.de

• Greece needs a third loan package – that’s the conclusion from the current complex situation. The question is how the support should look like.
• In also the euro area countries and the International Monetary Fund are not unanimous. At issue is about how much debt for Greece are actually wearable.
• Before new negotiations in Brussels on Monday, the Finance Minister Schäuble and Varoufakis surprisingly meet for talks.

Analysis of Cerstin Gammelin

In six weeks the second aid program for Greece runs out. And still to have Greece and the lender, and with each other, do not agree on how to proceed with the land.

Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Euro Group and Greece each have given some thought to how the dramatic debt crisis can be calmed. But mainly the Euro-Minister refuse to create from consideration a concrete, beschließbaren plan. The reasons are manifold. Above all, it is important that neither side first exceed their red line, first wants to make concessions.

Before the meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble comes as a surprise with his colleague Yanis Varoufakis together. From Athens it is, the issue was due on Tuesday IMF loan. Should Greece serve this, the government could no longer pay pensions. According to reports Athens so expect concessions. Opposite the station Euro News protested Varoufakis, Greece will pay the rate.

The IMF wants the haircut, the euro area countries in no way

Before the meeting of euro zone finance ministers is clear that the expectations of the meeting are low. The Greek Government, they say officially, not a steer in necessary reforms and presenting unrealistic budget figures. . Overall, Athens move too little to decide concrete such as the disbursement of financial assistance can

Athens in turn points to the lender: IMF and Euro-ministers argue over that mountain of debt for Greece is portable medium. The IMF – in relation to the economic strength – of 120 per cent by 2020 from. This rate seems unattainable: Currently it is 180 percent, the economy is growing barely. Why does the IMF for additional assistance for a haircut condition – of course with respect to loans of euro area countries and not on our own. Such a haircut reject the euro countries

What happens in case of insolvency

From this complex conflict situation arises especially one conclusion:.? Greece needs a third bailout package, so that the repayment of all debt is backed up.

How can such a package appearance, talk about lenders and borrowers long. So it goes in the ongoing negotiations and not first about that the Greeks still suggest no quantifiable, solid reforms or that they desperately need money for the next loan repayment. Especially it comes to match the fiscal data and to calculate debt sustainability. It has both a completion of the current aid program and at the same time created a third package. So much so that the IMF continue doing

can grind the reforms euro crisis Five Myths about Greece

Has Athens? Taste the euro rescue the German taxpayer actually billion – the then absent for about education? A fact check.

In principle, the IMF takes a special role among the lenders. When the crisis broke out in Greece, urged Chancellor Angela Merkel to involve the International Monetary Fund in the rescue of Greece. On the one hand because of the expertise, on the other hand, to limit the political influence on hard economic and fiscal decisions.

In addition, Greece is not automatically bankrupt, the state’s IMF debt should not operate. Would he a rate – as is due this Tuesday – not pay or delayed, which is likely to have on the markets no immediate consequences. The bonds of the IMF can not be traded. Also rating agencies are likely interested in it hardly.

consequences on the other hand would have to draw the European Central Bank from such a scenario. Athens paid the IMF does not rule out the suggested reading for the ECB points to serious financial difficulties. So you would have the collateral that offer the Greek banks for emergency loans financial (ELA), reevaluate. It is not excluded that the ECB would be of the view that it can no longer grant ELA. The Fed is likely to pay off in Athens the Greek banks no ELA-money more. The Institute could not buy a short-term IOUs their government more. Athens would be a matter of days insolvent.

Your Forum Can new loans Greece still save?

Greece simply can not get out of the debt crisis. The country will need a third package of loans to pay off old debts. What do you think Greece has even a chance to escape the eternal cycle of ever new debt? your forum

Who moves first?

A third package therefore has to ensure that Athens can use the IMF.

provided a unanimous decision of euro zone finance ministers as well as approval of some national parliaments It is these decisions that Athens and – the debt that Athens has to the ECB, on the other hand could accept the euro rescue fund ESM. Lenders have to make now – and take the time. In addition, one of the partners must first move, so that the process gets under way. Was heard on Monday from Athens that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras fears a concession for its part, could not be adequately addressed by the lenders – which could lead to disagreements in his leftist coalition Syriza

All the same. As of Tuesday, the experts try the lenders and Greece again, all the numbers and data for the necessary decisions to collect.