Travel forms. This is true in the current Greek crisis more than ever. Some Members of the Union have in recent weeks visited the state, which currently depends on funds of the other euro countries. The findings were obviously devastating. Much has since been in the group talk of a bottomless pit, of a de facto bankruptcy, of lost billions, which one should not throw behind new. Yet this mood is of no consequence, since no decision is pending. As long as the government in Athens is not with the three creditor institutions – European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) – agree, changes in the political impasse once not
However, the scope for the federal government is noticeably smaller, but any change in the existing aid package by the Bundestag must be approved. That Chancellor Angela Merkel as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble is more willing to take into account not only economic facts and geopolitical factors, is considered certain knowledge. Even their own faction likely want to let you down, they hardly, if they should submit an agreement from Brussels. The SPD faction seems more willing to give the Greeks a new money – that leave at least the submissions of Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel expect
About pockets of resistance in the Union faction against aid packages for indebted euro countries has been more written than there are utilities. Every time was the thing clear: The number of dissenters was negligible compared to the majority in the Bundestag. That was too black and yellow times not unlike now with black and red. When it comes time from similar? If the final payment of the second aid package for Greece also waved through the Bundestag, even if the government implements from extreme left and right in Athens, only a portion of the previous commitments? The suspicion arises. But it might actually turn out differently this time.
So Merkel will have to consider that the pain threshold in the Union Group has fallen markedly. Is considered inconceivable that the deputies of the CDU and CSU agree to a result that leads to the fact that the IMF approved of the action. A scenario that European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker would more than likely right. But for the Union it would be political suicide. Merkel herself had insisted to include the multilateral institution to prevent compromises. Especially conservative voters hold somewhat of a collaboration with a government that aufkündigt contracts negotiated unilaterally.
Schäuble’s spokesman presented on Friday officially: “Without the IMF goes nothing.” The International Monetary Fund may, however, only further contribute to the bailout for Greece, if the government finances of the Hellenic Republic are so far rehabilitated, at least in perspective, a fiscal policy carrying capacity is achieved. Otherwise it would be another haircut after his usual approach, which is not only Germany, but also France and Italy categorically reject. Rome and Paris already have enough problems with their own debt.
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The involvement of the IMF in turn prohibits scenarios where only the current tool is softened in order then a new nachzuschieben. The EU Commission is suspected to work towards. It relies in Berlin that since the countries who like the Spaniards, Portuguese or the Baltic suffered even tough reforms, will not continue to play. This is extremely important from a German perspective, because they fear more than anything else, end up being the culprit to stand who has boxed Greece out of the euro. So is thinking intensely about possible compromises. After Tsipras government had brought a referendum on the required reforms into play, there was consideration of a phased approach: Athens is committed to the ongoing adaptation program. Because this runs counter to his own campaign promises diametrically, follows the a referendum along the lines of “Are you for the Memorandum or for an exit from the euro area?”. Until the vote, the country would continue with towed. But that seems to be overtaken again. In Berlin you have now gained the impression that Athens moves away again from the referendum.
Given the desolate appearance of the government of extreme left and right in the Athens emerged once unthinkable as an increasingly likely possibility on the horizon: a failure of the negotiations, of national bankruptcy. Schäuble includes already in interviews no longer the biggest accident from the perspective of euro-rescue politicians. Officially, the government is working on any plan B, but it would be naive if she did not prepare for the event in a secret operation.
In the Union faction, there is increasing mind games in the event what-if: A utility “light” to Brussels performances is excluded, ie new loans against bloodless reform commitments from Athens. Instead, turn the considerations about possible Minimalist mergers that would flow past the government in Athens to maintain minimal life functions in the prostrate state, so that, for example, hospitals and banks could continue to work. A keyword in this context is: Hartz IV for euro countries. Full drop does not want you, the Greeks apparently did. A decaying state in the European Union remains a horror show.
Athens expected buckling of Merkel
The Greek government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis holds an agreement of his country with the creditors on additional loans within ten days possible. The conditions for further progress of the negotiations had improved, the government spokesman said after the meeting the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande. Political observers in Athens mind seeing only deadlock in negotiations between Greece and its creditors.
Unmoved by the circumstances, the members of the Left Party led by Tsipras Syriza turn further against any reform regulations that were previously viewed by the creditors as a condition for further loans to Greece. This weekend will hold meetings for two days the Central Committee of Syriza, which critical and loud sounds over the contractors and funders of Greece will continue to expect. The Tsipras government has promised anyway, there would be neither wages nor pension cuts, you also would oppose further fiscal adjustment. But the tactics of Tsipras, with political talks at Head of State, the Treasury, so that the reform content to bypass itself is, so far failed. Yet still say government officials in Athens that Merkel wanted to avoid a financial collapse of the country or even a withdrawal of Greece from the monetary union at all costs. In Greece write the media, Merkel saw such an event as a political disaster. Tobias Piller
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