It was a promising start to the year, but now loses the job market momentum. According to economists, this trend will continue in the coming month well.
After growing skepticism in labor market researchers now go even economists of major German banks only by a low dynamic on the German labor market , Although they expected this year to continue with falling unemployment, but no longer with the pace as the beginning of the year, they reported in a survey by the German Press Agency. Last week the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB) had forecast a stagnation for the coming months.
For the economists of May of a decline in unemployment by around 80,000 to 2.763 million from. This would be about 120,000 fewer than a year ago, the experts reported, citing its own calculations. Similarly strong the May unemployment had fallen on average over the past three year. The official unemployment figures will announce the Federal Employment Agency (BA) this Tuesday (June 2nd) in Nuremberg.
“We still expect that the unemployment decreased slightly, but less as at the beginning, “says the German Bank economist Heiko Peters. In addition to the somewhat weaker economy in the first quarter this probably also play a role of mild winters. “As a result, the labor market development was oversubscribed positive at the beginning,” says the economist. After deducting seasonal factors, the number of unemployed would have fallen by only 5,000 in May.
Meanwhile crystallize after observations of economists gradually the impact of the new minimum wage regulations out. According to Allianz economist Rolf Schneider is distinguished now from clear that the minimum wage has led to the elimination of marginal employment, particularly in eastern Germany especially. It as not only the mini-job statistics out, but also for some months stagnant seasonally adjusted number of employed persons. “We have had no employment growth in the last three months.”