Thursday, February 2, 2017

The risks of Deutsche Bank shares – FAZ – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

As John stood on the stage, was over the worst of it already: The share of Deutsche Bank had overcome its intraday low shortly before 10 a.m., minus 7.1 percent were to the time to book. The corresponded 17,86 euros. A sigh of Relief was heard in the Frankfurt twin towers, however, disappointing quarterly figures for many investors and analysts.

Franz Nestlerauthor: Franz Nestler, editor of the economy.

In the past few months seemed to run satisfactory to the Bank: After several legal disputes have been resolved, was one of the largest German financial institution in the past 4 months with a Plus of almost 50 per cent of the biggest winners on the German stock market. Of course, because the American President Donald Trump nebulous announcements were scattered, which fueled the hope that the strict shackles could be loosened from the investment trade – and thus the profits could be re-bubbling. Many of the Bank’s shares in the life of this fantasy.

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But, this imagination does not have many analysts. A series of flat in chartered on Thursday, analysts estimates, with the negative reviews. Not a single one of the of the financial Agency Bloomberg on Thursday surveyed Analysts gave a positive Outlook on the stock. One half is recommended, to sell, to wait and to keep the papers only once, the other half advises even. The course, the analysts see somewhere between 10 and 20 Euro commute, in the consensus at 15.50 euros – a little, if you look at the current 18 Euro. This, however, was the surprisingly high level of loss that was twice as high as the analysts generally predicted.

analysts see many of the problems and risks of the Deutsche Bank share. So the further away the Bank remained in the press conference, still in the Approximate. The Bank’s strategy was not clear, only that there will be no radical pivot. Also suspended dividend investors heard what they wanted to hear: John Cryan left open the question of when there is one.

it is also still Open is the question of a possible capital increase, such as Michael Hewson from the Broker CMC Markets says. Crucial for the future capital will be required, which in turn is determined by Basel 4, as well as future possible legal disputes. First, there are a lot of ways to improve the equity position result: Starting from a Partial IPO of the asset management division, a sale of Postbank to a capital increase, a lot is imaginable. At the earliest, until the annual General meeting in may, the fog will clear on this subject.

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However, not only the uncertain Outlook on the future, analysts are pessimistic about the future, even the weak result was many of the dealers a thorn in the eye. Both profitability and profits are compared with American competitors – is much too low. Markus Riesselmann of Independent Research criticized, for example, the weak development of the bond business: The revenues there have risen by 11 per cent, three times, Plus posted the same business of JP Morgan Chase. In General, the surprisingly weak business is criticized for the result, in turn, but the strong liquidity praised. Also, the capital base is assessed as well, for example, UBS Analyst Daniele Brupbacher.

A stock trader, said to the Reuters news Agency that the euphoria over the securities of Deutsche Bank is probably already too high, and the stock has gotten so much advance in Laurel. For the rest of the market warned analyst Jochen Stanzl CMC Markets: The slide should not be overstated. The rising Inflation in the Euro area would drive the monetary policy in the direction of negative interest rates, what will the benefit of Deutsche Bank in the end.

But not only on the stock markets, the German Bank advertises to trust, even in the bond markets, tries to keep the peace. It is the “clear intent” of the Deutsche Bank, in the current year, the so-called Coco is easy to use-Bonds, respectively, AT 1-Coupons, said chief financial officer Marcus Schenck. The Bank has not had to draw on reserves. In the year 2014 that is issued to particularly risky promissory notes (Coco-Bonds), the Bank had strengthened its capital base, had lost in the crisis autumn of 2016.

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