Monday, May 11, 2015

+++ +++ Greek crisis: With these three negative scenarios for Greece … – ABC Online

Updated on Monday, 11.05.2015, 12:29
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Find EU and Greece still a way out of crisis ? Or is it already too late? The creditors are waiting for a concrete reform list of Athens. All information in the news ticker.

  • week of decision has begun.
  • Schäuble warns of sudden collapse.
  • Troika plans with three negative scenarios.

Greek government wants pending payment to IMF afford

12.28 Clock: Athens has doubts out of the way, the government could not afford the upcoming Tuesday debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Greece would fulfill all its obligations, the Greek Government spokesperson Gabriel Sakellaridis said on Monday in Athens. He was responding to the question of whether Greece will make a principal repayment to the IMF in the amount of 756 million euros on this Tuesday.

“The Greek government has a responsibility to all its obligations both domestically and to meet abroad, “Sakellaridis said. Earlier speculations were in the Greek press has been reproduced with citing government sources, Greece could not pay the repayment tranche from the IMF on Tuesday.



“Either the supply now, or it’s over”

11.50 Clock: The Chairman of the CDU / CSU parliamentary group in the European Parliament, Herbert Reul, sees the chances to remain in Greece in the euro disappear: “All the facts indicate that there will be no solution for Greece Rheinische Post “.

” The Greek government is not willing to stand by what has been agreed. “Reul of appearing in Dusseldorf said” This is incomprehensible “The mood in Brussels described Reul with the words:”. Either the supply now, or it’s over “

Varoufakis:”. We have everything possible done “

11.44 Clock: The Greek government has done everything to presentation by Finance Minister Giani Varoufakis their utmost to reach an agreement with the Euro Group on Monday. Now would the donors to show the political will to Varoufakis said shortly before his departure for the meeting of the Euro Group in the afternoon in Brussels the radio stations left ruling party Syriza “Sto Kokkino”.

Varoufakis but did not expect, even with an agreement yet on Monday: “It is (now) be difficult,” he said. This (the agreement) could follow “in the coming days”. “The government has done everything humanly possible. The solution is visible,” Varoufakis said. Without a comprehensive and firmly agreed reform package to which is struggling since the start of the new government in Athens, want donors blocked credit support of EUR 7.2 billion does not pay to the bankrupt threatened country

France:. Breakthrough with Athens needs more days or weeks

10.45 Clock: The negotiations of the euro area countries with Greece on the continued financial support will take the opinion of France for some time to complete. There are still “a few days to a few weeks” needed to come to a conclusion with Athens, the French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said on Monday in Paris before traveling to a meeting with his counterparts from the euro zone to Brussels. The Greek Finance Minister Giani Varoufakis said a breakthrough was “within sight”. Necessary was now “the political will” of the creditors in order to achieve this.

The meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday afternoon would show “that there is movement,” Sapin said. Thus, there is “progress, but they are not mature enough.” The French Finance Minister, according to the negotiating climate improved in recent weeks. However, it remains “a complex and difficult process”.

“Greece is no agreement signed that has no way out of the crisis”, Varoufakis said Monday in radio Sto Kokkino. An agreement must include “the question of debt, unemployment and recession.” The Greek government had “done everything humanly possible” to allow an agreement

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Troika plans with three negative scenarios for Greece

Review: Prior to the meeting of the Euro Group on Monday currently estimates hardly an expert further talks with Greece positively. “Yes, the new negotiator from Athens are human pleasant than the troops to finance Giani Varoufakis,” said one of the negotiators of the “world”. “In terms of content but does not go ahead.”

The climate was indeed gotten better, progress on important reforms in pension, labor market and taxes on the other hand can be observed barely. “On the contrary,” said the negotiator. “The Greeks have only just ‘passed a bill with the name of democratization of the civil service, which decides the reinstatement of 13,000 civil servants.” This is clearly contrary to the spirit of the reform agreements with the troika of the IMF, European Central Bank (ECB) and the EU Commission.

Given this starting point plan, the three institutions now with a positive and three negative scenarios, learned the “world” of negotiation circles. Only the Positive provides that Greece complies with all its obligations, so that Athens will receive until the end of the second utility money.

The other three scenarios currently being discussed are from the perspective of all negotiators in gradations negative.

Scenario 1 assumes that a reform-minded government presented actually substantial proposals on Monday, but the Greeks have thereby overestimated their financial reserves. The most important prerequisite for possible assistance to the ECB: “The Greeks really show good faith at the negotiating table,” it says in Brussels

Scenario 2 assumes that half-hearted proposals the Greeks. are accepted. Sometime during the next few weeks, Greece will be the debt with the IMF and the ECB can no longer pay off. If the Greek Government then willingly shows the further course of the crisis, when it quickly closes reform agreements with the Europeans and then turns on its debt, the whole thing could not get a grip, so the scenario of the Troika experts.

In scenario 3 comes from the Troika of a completely uncooperative Greek Government. She begins to pay its employees and retirees in government IOUs known as IOUs, the beginning of the introduction of a parallel currency. Three, four very hard years could come to Greece, puts it in Brussels. And almost all in Greece would then poorer than they are today

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