World trade will grow significantly less in 2016 according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) than previously thought. Instead of 3.9 percent, the WTO expects to have on Thursday now only 2.8 percent growth the previous year. For 2017, the experts predict an increase of 3.6 percent. This would exceed the three percent mark for the first time in six years.
“The curve at the World Trade shows upwards, albeit with a disappointing pace,” said WTO chief Roberto Azevêdo in Geneva. 2016 will the fifth consecutive year with an increase of less than three percent. Although Moreover grow the volume of trade, but the value of goods had decreased due to exchange rate effects and falling prices for bulk products, Azevedo said. This development could just hit the fragile economic growth in developing countries.More risks than opportunities
The WTO currently sees more risks than opportunities for world trade. This includes a significant slowdown in the United States after the world’s second largest economy China and greater unpredictability of financial markets. The continued low commodity prices are putting a lot of countries. “This could be the already fragile economic growth in the vulnerable emerging countries undermined,” Azevedo said. In addition, in the industrialized countries declining faith of consumers and businesses in a positive trend, wrote the WTO in its analysis.
Asia will have 3.4 percent, the strongest growth, the WTO announced on with. After Europe and North America follow with respectively 3.1 percent. Significantly more critical is the situation in Latin America. There, the WTO expects an increase in exports of only 1.9 percent, and even a decline of 4.5 percent in imports.
The German exporters are expected again this year to gain market share. According to forecasts of their industry association BGA their exports are 4.5 percent rise as the World Trade stronger.
investigation of economic forecasts
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