In the public debate the Greek crisis played only a minor role. The threat of state bankruptcy seemed averted, in Athens, there is a more or less stable government and the flamboyant former Treasury Yanis Varoufakis earned as guest speaker his money.
But now WikiLeaks has published the recording of a telephone conversation, the allegedly high-ranking employee of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should have published. including known for his hard line IMF Europe chief Poul Thomsen – – This week the staff make it clear what they think of the progress made in the rehabilitation of the land: nothing. If Europeans the Greeks not enacted some of their debts, the funds could withdraw from the utility.
This would be especially for Angela Merkel a disaster , For the German Chancellor faces a dilemma: She has given a commitment that the IMF participated in the rescue and for the CDU Bundestag group, this was a prerequisite for approval of new billions in aid. the Monetary Fund Pulls possibly even back under protest, it would be very difficult for Merkel to find in Parliament supporters for their course. On the other hand, Merkel and her Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out a debt cut for Greece repeatedly and explicitly and the AFD will both remember for the rest at every opportunity that promise.
The Fund is ultimately about its own credibility. His prescribe rules that loans may be granted only to countries that can also repay. From the perspective of the hawks in Washington institution – to include the representatives of some emerging countries, where little grace was given, as they stretch in similar difficulties as Greece today – the rules have already been stretched, as the fund on the first two bailouts involved and at some point the amount was just full.
A haircut would restore the sustainability of public finances, but the costs are borne by the Europeans. You would have to waive the repayment of loans – and admit the fact that they have either the situation in Greece assessed completely wrong or not telling their voters the whole truth. And they fear that there’s no chance to exert pressure on Greece pressure when the liabilities are issued only once.
Will the Greeks themselves. They might alleviate the problem, when they together cut their public spending even further and put the money saved in debt service. But for this they are unwilling – and probably can be it the world torn apart by multiple crises country probably actually also not be expected. But someone will have to move, otherwise the numbers do not agree.
Most likely it is that at the end of every move is. Europe boss Thomsen is a senior employee of the IMF, but it does not make the decisions. The do the representatives of the member countries and it is unlikely that the international community has an interest in escalating the debt crisis.
Merkel in turn has already signaled that it would agree to debt relief under an explicit haircut. This may involve lower lending rates or an extension of the repayment. There are also other screws. If creditors example also still provide reasonably solid growth for the Greek economy, could at least be likely to recover on paper debt sustainability. And as always, will be agreed at the last minute so that all parties can say that they have really fought to the last.
Is Greece saved it? No. The country is its debt can not repay. They will either sweep or must relocate the repayment date so far in the future that essentially amounts to the same thing. Eventually is no longer prepared to hide – but perhaps Europe has then not yet at the same time to cope with a refugee and a British crisis. That at least is likely to be the calculus in Brussels and Berlin.
No comments:
Post a Comment