What the IMF really thinks about Greece – THE WORLD

Poul Thomsen, Delia Velculescu and Iva Petrova probably thought she could talk openly, as they started their joint conference call on March 19. Quite frankly, the three employees of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) wanted on how to proceed in terms of Greece advise: strategy, tactics. How do you get the Europeans to the Greeks to present the commonly agreed guidelines for the new aid package so that they would not again weakened? And how should the fund – which has its participation is not yet confirmed the new, now third rescue program – position in the negotiations with the Europeans

What the? three languages, it does have within itself. The IMF considers it still possible that Greece goes bankrupt. Not less explosive. For negotiating tactics of the Fund it seems obvious also to include, to put Germany under pressure

Photo: AP Tsipras called even on Saturday morning, a cabinet meeting a

the world has to know about it, because the call has been intercepted and recorded. It is now no longer a novelty that senior officials from governments and international organizations to eavesdropping. And that the transcript then emerges in the Wikileaks, also no longer considered unusual. Who has the IMF monitored, and with what intention he sent it to the website, could therefore permanently remain a mystery. What is clear, instead, that each party will use the documented in the documentation position of the IMF to make policy.

Harsh reaction from Athens

the political game began on Saturday afternoon, shortly after the release of the documents. Those responsible in Athens sent a sharply-worded message to interested media: “The Greek Government calls from the IMF a statement whether it is an official position of the Fund, shortly before the British referendum to create (on leaving the EU) conditions that Greece bankruptcy drive. “

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called even on Saturday morning, a cabinet meeting and informed the President. It is said that he wanted to make calls with the European leaders. “We will not allow anyone to play with fire”, according to Greek government sources

The IMF, in turn, also reacted with the message from Washington.: without adequate reforms or debt relief is no IMF money. “The reforms and objectives needed to be based on credible assumptions.” The lower the willingness to reform the Greeks fails, the more need to give the haircut the European donors. It’s the old, well-known mantra.

on the financial statements by the IMF surprised not. The actors quantify the risk that Greece will lie another bankruptcy in the next five years, to well over 50 percent.

Photo: Infographics world The crisis in Greece has lost its acute terror. But the actors in the financial markets still expect that the country will lie another bankruptcy in the next five years

One can ask who benefits from the publication of the recordings now. The Greeks? Yes, because they demand from the unpopular IMF now officially stating a whether the fund would send the ailing country if need be in bankruptcy. The IMF itself? Also possible. Because seemingly unobtrusive way will the Europeans made clear in this monitoring protocol how dissatisfied Poul Thomsen and his staff with the negotiation of Europeans.

Questionable negotiating tactics of Europeans

More interesting than the question of who is who overheard since, therefore, the content of the conversation itself. the minutes, the authenticity of which is so far not disputed by anyone, it appears that the funds in

has conversations already weakened with the EU Commission representatives its guidance slightly. Instead of the known medium 3.5 percent budget surplus net of interest payments would be the IMF quite involved and to lower values. If you only knew the Europeans there would then be well on this compromise. “Somehow we have gone with the wrong strategy in the negotiations,” laments the IMF Mission Head in Athens, Delia Velculescu. We have negotiated with the EU a compromise, a minimum position. And the Commission will go with this minimum position in the negotiations with Athens and was ready this weaken further.

Or so it was already common in the past. The Fund was not satisfied with the more conciliatory negotiating position of the Commission. The Commission considers the Fund too rigid. It is an eternal back and forth since the beginning of the Greek bailout. Also about the Germans, the IMF staff complain. Actually, you did not expect to be in the negotiations on the new aid for Greece much further in view of the refugee crisis. The Background: Greece is far stronger than act as a reception center for refugees. But the Germans might rather give debt relief for Athens, so the expectation in Washington. It has apparently miscalculated. “I’m surprised that has not happened,” says Thomsen.

Merkel can not for the time being blackmailed

The disappointment is palpable. Because Thomsen had hoped to put the Chancellor in this decision under pressure. “Look, Mrs. Merkel, you are faced with a question: You need to think about what you will cost more: go ahead without the IMF, which would tell the Bundestag to or to select the debt relief, we believe that Greece him needs in order to stay on board. “

What sounds like extortion, is a known requirement of the IMF experts. Germany must meet the haircut, so the debt burden of the country is easier Greece. The debt must be greater, the less the Greeks are willing to reform. Only the Fund to participate in the third tool is to move. In Berlin this is not so popular location.

In the federal capital is therefore assumes that the negotiations between the Greeks and the donors including the IMF even could drag on until July, when the cash-strapped country again have to repay a large sum of his debts. And now you can see in the IMF, the danger in this expectation. The Europeans would initially not to continue negotiating with the Greeks and initially wait for the British referendum on a withdrawal of Britain from the EU. And of course it could – as in the past – result in Athens would once again nearing insolvency. Greece, as you can see it in Berlin, had always moved only when nothing went. The situation is similar to the IMF.

IMF is annoyed by the Greeks negotiations

If you read the recording to the end, especially an image remains. The staff of the IMF have had enough of the everlasting negotiations. Dissatisfied with the soft from Washington view the Commission’s position, the organization of the Europeans in the negotiations with Athens feels left alone. Thomsen is considered representative of that position that would see the fund rather be out than inside the new aid package.

Only applies Poul Thomsen nor the decision on the further IMF involvement on the third aid package, as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has met them for Germany. In the end, the government will put together and seek a compromise. And if the fund is not to go on board, Angela Merkel and IMF chief Christine Lagarde will find a deal. At least talk past experience it.