The economic crisis in Russia has far worse consequences for the countries of the European Union (EU) and Switzerland than expected so far. According to a calculation by the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (Wifo), far more than two million jobs and 100 billion euros in added value across Europe at risk.
The scientists in their study, they have created exclusively for the alliance of leading European dailies (LENA), based on a “worst case scenario”. “The export failures that we had assumed last autumn at worst, are now a reality,” says Oliver Fritz, one of three authors of the study. The sanctions against Russia and the Russian response, played a decisive role. “Does not change the situation fundamentally, our most pessimistic scenario will occur likely.”
The effect could only be mitigated by the fact that companies in other more Export Countries. But there was at least in agricultural products signs.
The European foreign ministers will decide on Monday in Brussels on the continuation of sanctions against Russia. Already at the G-7 summit in Elmau, the Government had agreed to hold as long as the sanctions against Russia until the second cease-fire agreement of Minsk is implemented in February this year.
Putin is expected to see confirmed
With voltage the appearance of Russian President Vladimir Putin this Friday is expected at the International St. Petersburg Economic Forum in this regard. As a prelude to the summit, the groups E.ON and Siemens gave spectacular billion transactions known.
Putin will feel confirmed in his warnings that the trade restrictions serious consequences for EU economies will have – especially since Russia also countered in August last year with sanctions. In Germany alone, the calculations according to Wifo medium almost half a million jobs and about 27 billion euros in added value at stake.
Changes to the frame data from the first quarter of 2015, nothing could be, the ongoing crisis Germany cost a little more than one percentage point of economic performance in the coming years, the Wifo has calculated. No other major European economy would be severely affected. Italy would thus lose a little more than 200,000 jobs and 0.9 percent of economic power, in France it would be almost 150,000 jobs and 0.5 percent.
European Commission comes to a different conclusion
The assumptions and conclusions of the WIFO study are so different from that in the latest sanction confidential report from the European Commission, which circulated in diplomatic circles. Accordingly, the Commission concludes that impact of trade restrictions on the European economy “relatively small and manageable” were – especially companies selling some of the goods now in other countries, as well as in the agricultural sector
The Commission end of May showed even confident that the existing negative effects of trade restrictions are reduced again. The different assessments are based on the fact that the Commission carries out a short-term view and assume that the negative effects be mitigated now.
The scenario of WIFO Economists, however, is based on the assumption that the bad situation in the first quarter will continue in 2015. They also take into account so-called knock-on effects because of higher unemployment and lower demand.
According to large falls from the decline in economic performance in the Wifo scenario. Even if one uses not only the development of exports in the first quarter 2015, but also the far better last three months of last year, about 1.9 million jobs and almost 80 billion euros in added value are by the Russian crisis, including sanctions in Europe at risk.
economist Fritz also points out that it is impossible to distinguish the direct effect of trade restrictions by the consequences of the oil price and the ruble decline. “We consider the Russian import activities as a whole,” says Fritz. “Here we go, however, firmly believe that the sanctions have a significant adverse effect, if we also take into account Russia’s reaction to the EU’s measures.”
Little confident is the Chairman of the Eastern Committee of German Economy Eckhard Cordes: “The first quarter of 2015 is a good indicator for the assessment of the situation until then we were in descent since spring 2014. Now the ground could be reached… Exactly, we do not know it though. ” Yet the situation is manageable, says Cordes, who as chairman of the wholesaler Metro had close connections to Russia earlier. “But if this trend continues for more – let’s say a year – and then the German-Russian relations will suffer serious harm.” The Chairman of the Eastern Committee is especially concerned that competitors from China or other countries to step in and prove their worth. “We hear more and more often: ‘So much worse than the Germans, the Chinese are not.’ That’s worrisome. “
Public information deficit is unmistakable
The Kremlin has in August 2014 import many agricultural and food products such as milk, fruit, vegetables, cheese and meat prohibited from the European Union. This is mainly for countries like Italy, Spain or the Netherlands hit hard.
From the scientific side, the monitoring of the sanctions will be sharply criticized. “The European Union has no benchmarks or models to measure the effectiveness of sanctions,” says Borja Guijarro-Usobiaga, who is currently a PhD from the London School of Economics on the subject.
In the EU Commission is disputed that. We dispose on data from Member States of their own and public sources and values those of facing the overall context.
At least one public information deficit is unmistakable. After researching the LENA reporter in Brussels, the Commission asks Although strict confidence from the economic consequences in the EU countries. But not even the MEPs know this Commission report.
Even the ministries of the Member States are apparently particularly confidential reports to the Commission on the consequences of the sanctions only verbally informed – probably so the figures do not reach the public. The fear is great to give the Russians important information at hand.
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