that Greece should leave the euro zone, to regain its competitiveness, asks Hans-Werner Sinn for several years. Now the president of the Munich Institute for Economic Research (Ifo) has explained in detail how he had to exit the country from the monetary union, the so-called Grexit imagines. Thus, the phase-out of the single currency and a return to the Greek drachma at any time only within a single weekend could succeed.
For this, the weekend should be used to convert all contracts in Greece by law from euros to drachma, for example, employment contracts, collective agreements, rent and credit agreements. “The numbers in the Treaties remain the same, except for the monetary changes of Euro in drachma,” said sense.
on Monday morning was then the drachma official cash in the country, even if there were no coins and bills of the new old currency in circulation. The circulating euro notes and coins could initially continue to be used as a parallel currency, were marked and printed up new drachmas.
The new exchange rate of the drachma and euro will form on the international financial markets in the shortest possible time. “The devaluation takes place immediately”, expected sense. Calculations of other economists assumed that the new Greek currency could depreciate by up to 50 percent.
New low currency helps Greece
that there must be an exit of Greece, stands for meaning beyond question. An outlet was urgently required especially from the perspective of the Greeks. Only in this way can the country find their way back to competitiveness and economic growth.
Be the reintroduced the drachma devalued only once, the new cheap currency the domestic economy going strong boost: Since imported goods would be too expensive from abroad and even doubled in extreme cases, the price would have to Greek consumers, the government and enterprises in the goods for which there are local alternatives to fall back on locally produced goods
<. p id = "p7" class = "text prefix_1 artContent"> This will especially help the Greek farmers, but for example, local textile producers. Have sense expected that many new jobs would be created in this way.
At the same time many billions of euros, the Greek citizens for fear of devaluation would managed abroad and the present park there, flow back into the country. Since the outbreak of the debt crisis are likely to calculations of sense and his colleagues around 104 billion euros capital have fled from Greece.
Humanitarian catastrophe
After a devaluation of the new drachma this money would the economy an additional boost in the opinion of sense in Greece: The capital that had been made during the crisis abroad will return, because in Greece suddenly everything is much cheaper , Property example would cheapen abruptly with the devaluation. “The capital will return to Greece and to a construction boom” expected sense.
Tourism also will benefit from the cheaper drachma and many tourists would instead of the future go to Turkey to Greece.
is despite the positive effect on the Greek competitiveness, in spite of the additional long-term growth and in spite of the prospect of new jobs a devaluation of course associated with hardening. “Devaluation means a real loss of income and the standard of living falls, because imports become more expensive,” the Ifo president said. The first one or two years after the change would be hard. Given the disastrous economic situation in the country were the Grexit and a devaluation of the drachma but the best solution for Greece.
In particular, the very high unemployment threaten otherwise becoming a threat to democracy, warns top economist. “I wonder if the Greek democracy is robust enough to survive in the euro zone the disaster,” he said. Because the current situation is really devastating.
“There is a humanitarian catastrophe, when 50 percent of young people are unemployed,” said sense. It is therefore important that Greece using an exit and a devaluation of the drachma boosting the domestic economy. “I would venture to doubt whether the current price is conducive to the debt crisis for the Greek democracy.”
Additional help the euro-partner, even after Grexit necessary
To ensure that Greece also having a highly devalued drachma continue to refer drugs from abroad and that the power supply of net energy importer does not fail, would the European partner country and first attack after exiting the euro zone with temporary assistance under the arms, in order to mitigate the consequences of the devaluation. This was necessary in solidarity, says the head economist.
warning of unpredictable consequences for the world economy in the event of a Grexit holds sense of exaggeration. He expects not even know that a Greek exit could shake the markets. “The markets are unfazed by the prospect of a Grexits” says sense and refers to the interest that other European countries in crisis have to pay in the financial markets for fresh money. Interest rates are lower than ever -. No sign of panic on the markets
“You can never rule out anything and the world is full of risks,” says meaning, “but it remains full of risks, even if Greece remains in the euro zone.” On Monday morning was the Green Party politician Claudia Roth a Greek exit in Germany Funk called “incalculable risk for the world economy”.
From the perspective of lenders, it is better, the “Greek experiment” as soon as possible to quit. “Greece can not repay its loans, because the state is unable to pay, and the earlier you booked these losses honest, the better it is for everyone involved.” 325 billion euros had been invested in recent years by the international community in Greece.
The sooner you admit to yourself that this money was largely lost, the better says sense. However, the policy deters even flinch. The maximum loss for Germany could reach up to 87 billion euros, says the economist – equal to what would happen: “The costs for Germany are largely independent of whether Greece remains in the euro or leaving.”
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