Ruble crisis in Russia – The intentional crash – Süddeutsche.de

Ruble crisis in Russia – The intentional crash – Süddeutsche.de

The ruble falls and falls and falls – and that’s a good thing. The crash of the currency shows that the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia act. He is also an expression of an epochal change in the world economy.

By Ulrich Schäfer

The ruble falls and falls and falls – and that’s a good thing. Yes, one can see it. After the crash of the Russian currency shows that Western sanctions act. Nothing is more volatile than the capital, and this leaves the land: who can afford it, pulling it off from the ruble and exchanged it for another currency. Companies do this, banks, oligarchs investors. The capital flees to New York, London, Liechtenstein or Cyprus. This drives the euro, dollars or Swiss francs compared to the ruble to the top – and the currency of Russia down

The once mighty foreign exchange reserves of the central bank in Moscow therefore dwindle. if this continues, the Moscow central bankers are their currency soon can no longer defend. Also astronomical interest, as they were now imposed not help – on the contrary, you may slow down a little capital flight, but even more they slow the economy as a whole

Your Forum rubles at record low: Tilts Russia’s economy?

in the fight against rising inflation in the country and the decline of the ruble, the Russian central bank had significantly raised its benchmark interest rate. After a short rest the currency crashed but again. Can Russia get out of this crisis? your forum

The ruble falls and falls and falls – and that is bad like that. Yes, as you can see it. After the crash not find on one insular economy in place, but it breaks here one of the most important emerging market currencies combined. Something has experienced the world in the summer of 1998, when the Russian central bank at the end lay down their arms and had to call the International Monetary Fund to help. Has and then more and more of the so-called “emerging markets” recognized

Repeat this story now – the then crash of the ruble strengthened those crisis in emerging markets that began in Asia.? Kracht only the ruble – move, and then some other currency

forces in the world economy

for the time being there is no reason to panic. Even if capital flows faster over the world than ever before, yet the situation in Russia aligned with its narrow, especially in the export of oil and gas industry is a special one. Russia suffers not only among Western sanctions, but also an epochal change in the world economy, a shift in the global energy markets, the much stronger undermines Russia’s power as NATO expansion eastward. Because of all the USA, for decades the energiehungrigste country on earth are risen within a few years the world’s largest oil producers and thus free themselves from a historical dependence. The reason for this is the shale oil boom. The whole struggle for power of the United States was destined thereof, to secure the supplies in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere for decades

The United States also had to face Russia a second superpower against that -. Unlike them – oil abundance possessed. Now this dependence disappears from foreign oil, and shifts the forces in the world economy and geopolitics: The oil can be – at least currently – no longer used as a weapon against the West. On the contrary, the oil is good as long as it continues to lose value, currently. Rather than a weapon against Russia The price of a barrel of crude oil is because the Americans and the Opec further promote unrestrained, almost as crashed soon as the price of the ruble in recent months. For Russia, this means that for each barrel that sell the state-controlled oil companies abroad, less foreign currency flowing into the country. In the past, filled the coffers of the Federal Reserve and also those of the Kremlin by itself – now they empty gradually

Larger danger from China

For many other countries in the world economy, however, is that. what makes Vladimir Putin and his government so much to create a blessing: the low price of oil acts as a huge economic stimulus package. This is true for Europe but also for emerging markets like India. In Germany, the research institutes have revised a few weeks ago its growth forecasts for 2015 down at it, this raise again.

At the risk to the global economy, the crash in Russia could only grow, if – for whatever reason – has been spreading in the financial markets the impression that not only there but also in other major emerging countries, growth is built on a too narrow base. A much greater danger than Russia could this come from China: If there the real estate bubble bursts (and therefore artificially increased strength of the Chinese economy obviously is), would have more powerful effects than intended by the West crash of the Russian economy

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