Date: 30.12.2014 18:03 clock
What happens if Greece left the alliance will win the election? If there is a radical break with the austerity policy, international donors should stop making payments. More likely is a different scenario.
With pithy words makes Alexis Tsipras from Syriza front against the austerity targets that have imposed international donors Greece: “The euro zone can not last forever balancing on a knife-edge Either it covers a large part of the billion debt – or they will all fall into the abyss..”
Multiple announced the SYRIZA boss, do not repay in the event of an election victory, the debt in full, adjust official dismissed again and the reform program of the government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to cut.
Looking for a partner to rely
But there is a change of government, SYRIZA is all according to surveys rely on coalition partners, such as the Democratic Left, which occurs much more moderate , In other words, SYRIZA would take of his radical positions distance, with the troika of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB), the painful process of reform thus nevertheless continue
” After initial general rejection of the entire reform and consolidation process and tough negotiations between the new government and the European institutions are ultimately compromises found “a possible scenario of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba). Then the recovery process of the Greek economy would indeed lost – a complete relapse into recession but prevents
Giegold. SYRIZA can not dictate haircut
The Green MEP Sven Giegold cautions against overestimating Tsipras. Guided by the SYRIZA party possible government can not dictate a haircut, Giegold said in Germany radio. A renegotiation of the debt – as required by Tsipras – was only fair that Greece is reforming its tax system simultaneously. Was necessary, for example, that there is a greater burden of high capacity.
But in addition to the optimistic model, also keeps the grim prognosis that could lead to a complete rupture between a possible new Greek government and the Troika links. What pressure fluid would then have the international donors at all? After all, it’s about two aid packages from a total of around 240 billion euros. “Making a lot of pressure can not troika” of money that has flowed in several installments, the last tranche of 1.8 billion euros is still pending.
says Gertrud Sheila, chief economist at Helaba in conversation with. In other words, the funds from the IMF, European Commission and the ECB would be lost – and Greece so completely insolvent. In financial markets, this would lead to unpredictable turbulence
.
Discussion of “Grexit”
The interest that has to pay for Greece to the capital markets would increase sharply again. Even now – after the announcement of the election – the yields on ten-year Greek bonds had risen to more than nine percent. In this scenario – no other help through the Euro countries, the IMF and the ECB – Athens would find no more private money lenders. “A debt restructuring and ultimately the Greek exit from the euro zone are inevitable,” the conclusion of Helaba analysis for this extreme case.
But a Greek exit from the euro zone is legally principle not provided. According to the EU Treaty of Lisbon is a member of the currency zone “irrevocable”. If it came despite any legal obstacles to achieving the government in Athens would have to devalue the drachma new to make the economy more competitive again. However: The Greeks would advance the banks rush to withdraw their money in euros. The banking system would collapse.
Warning of high inflation
In addition, the devaluation of the drachma would prefer a dramatically high inflation and doubling prices itself explains Sheila. “Then it comes to massive protests in the streets,” she adds. The euro zone as a whole sees but also in this case is not in danger. An assessment shared by the director of the German Institute for Economic Research in Cologne. “The blackmail Europe is significantly less than three years ago,” said Michael Huether the “world”. Other countries such as Ireland and Portugal would have worked out of the crisis, also there was progress in terms of regulation, such as the Bank Union.
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