FOCUS Online Interview warns Hans-Werner sense before the collapse of pension funds: In 20 years, Germany loses 8.5 million workers. . To ward off the impending collapse, the Ifo boss unconventional proposals
FOCUS Online: Euro crisis, investment backlog, pension debacle – still the Germans were optimistic about the future. Are we too naive
Hans-Werner Sinn: Economically it looks really good in Germany, much better than in the spring, when the world was under the shock of the Ukraine crisis. Helps us that oil prices and the euro fell. That brings positive economic stimulus. What is another matter: Germany will have huge long-term demographic problems when baby boomers want in the pension
FOCUS Online:. When the problems start
sense The Baby Boomers that drive this country at the moment, are born 1964/65. In ten years, the 60, then you want the first with their aches and pains in the pension. In 15 years, the majority seeks to retire. And in 20 years, almost all of it. Then we will seven and a half million more pensioners have eight and a half million fewer people of working age. To offset this by migration, 32 million people would be necessary. One can not imagine.
FOCUS Online: If the pension problem ever be solved ?
sense The retirees will have to live with smears and young people groaning under the growing pension burden. We will need well-trained immigrants who help carry this burden. This is a short management strategy. But a solution in the sense that it then as well as now concerns us, is inconceivable
FOCUS Online:. What should policymakers do ?
sense The policy would need to do two things: on the one hand, the crisis now manage the other hand, long-term increase the birth rate. That helps but of course not until the baby boomers retire. The most important thing now is, people stop to save , but unlike today. At the moment we cause them to take their money to the banks and insurance companies, and too often they invest their money in government securities -. Unfortunately also in government securities of southern European countries
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FOCUS Online: Where is the problem
?
sense So far, many debtor countries to service their loans only because they got new loans with which they were able to replace the old ones. When the baby boomers want their money back in fifteen years and give the debtor countries new loans over the banks, I am skeptical that the money will be available. Some countries are their old loans can not operate. states are the most insecure debtor at all, because they have no judge of yourself and always be able to have a haircut
FOCUS Online:. And what can the policy then do
sense? The incentive systems must be changed. Currently drives the policy, the investors almost in government bonds. In principle, assets are weighted in the regulation according to risk, but for government bonds, the fiction is maintained, they are safe. Banks and insurers therefore they can buy without restriction. This is the real scandal . The have the time, the states themselves brought into the regulatory system, so that they could go into debt again. This partly explains the debt avalanche in southern Europe, which is hardly manageable . It is important to change course and to direct our banks and insurance companies in safer investments. And that means above all shares. The only seem uncertain, but in reality represent a participation in a real company
In the video. Expert Explains: Here you get now high interest rates
FOCUS Online: savings are currently difficult anyway. Who is standing in the middle of working life, for it looks with the state pension from difficult, but because of the low interest rates it is much better with the private pension off
sense. It looks even extremely bad. Who saves during his working life in order to live in the age of the proceeds of the savings got in the past, sometimes even two-thirds of his pension by interest rates. If the interest rate is, however, forced to zero, one has only invested capital. The losses are enormous: the Germans in their entirety lose compared to the interest rates before the crisis almost 70 billion euros – per year
FOCUS Online:. Can the individual at all reject this creeping expropriation
sense? The individual can invest in shares or real capital. He can renovate his home or buy a home for the elderly already place. These are suitable hedging strategies
FOCUS Online:. Do not move the state is because of the mandatory
sense? The social protection is not the sole responsibility of the state. That’s why everyone must take care
FOCUS Online:. How much aggravated the retirement age to 63, the situation
sense Retirement at 63 is a wrong step, we need to work longer and not shorter time. The problem of baby boomers has been known for decades, but was always hidden. The policy is apparently only able to edit the here and now, but can not think beyond a legislature. The retirement age to 67 was at least a step in the right direction. But I would go further and completely abolish the legal age . No one has, but everyone is allowed to work longer if he wants. If people want to work voluntarily longer and the same time we have a shortage of labor, Riester work may be people not prohibit reasons of age.
FOCUS Online: The mothers pension is considerably more expensive than the retirement age to 63, yet you defend them. Why
sense: Because there are no pension without mothers . That’s part of the problem of our system: All pensions are paid to arise only through education performance. The contributions we pay flowing yes to the now old generation and the old ones are dead, if we want our pension itself. You do not pay back. Only if there are children, there is a PAYG pension. I would suggest a supplementary to the existing statutory pension, which itself remains completely untouched: People without children would it save up for the additional pension capital, while the would get an additional Child pension with children who are paid by the generation of their children. Even the Chancellor has recently stressed that the state pension is not enough and that we need a supplementary pension
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