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Sunday, December 28, 2014
In the long term oil will become more expensive, says economists Snower. But currently proftitiere Germany noticeably from the cheaper raw material. For Russia, the situation is different.
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The fall in prices for oil has the view of the economist Dennis Snower for the world economy hardly any negative consequences. “But there are losers, and the biggest loser among the oil-exporting countries is Russia,” the president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) said.
In Germany, the low price carry significant contribution that 2015, the economic growth will exceed last year increased by 0.2 percentage points, Snower said. Overall, the direct effects for Germany but do not be so large because it is not very housekeepers oil-intensive. In the longer term Snower expects higher oil prices, because the change would take to renewable energy long.
As dramatically be the economic consequences of the current low price for Russia depends from the perspective Snowers largely on how the financial markets react and how much capital flows out of the country. In a corresponding extent of the crisis, it could happen that Russia can no longer service its debts. “The question will then be, as it made a political deal,” Snower said. Violent reactions could have major economic impact.
The Western sanctions against Russia are to be judged according to estimates Snowers not primarily in economic terms, but rather have a political dimension. “If a country does not comply with agreements concluded or facts is not correct, as is often claimed by Russia, then there must be consequences, otherwise it will be a precedent that can have big consequences in the future.” Russia was unable to produce important products that no longer gets it as a result of sanctions from abroad. “The country has not successfully converted during the period under Putin, away from dependence on natural resources.”
The West harm the sanctions mainly because of the uncertainties involved. “We have all heard not the political consequences and also know that’s not what economic consequences would over-indebtedness of Russia.” The situation is dicey, because the financial markets are not set up sustainable. “We continue to have the possibility of systemic crises, and since relatively small shocks can have large effects.”
In order to keep the euro permanently stable, should the euro-countries from the perspective Snowers still create the groundwork. So must be secured with a sustainable fiscal policy that no euro country can owe infinite. In addition, numerous regulatory instruments were still in use to prevent contagion in the euro zone. Countries such as Greece should be helped by the European Investment Bank, to boost growth and increase the level of education of the people. This could help to ensure that within Europe not too much apart gapes countries’ competitiveness.
More about“You have to turn to a number of screws at the same time,” Snower said. Would the proposed measures implemented, it also monetary policy could focus on keeping inflation under control, and would not even worry about the stabilization of financial markets.
is when the banking sector, the biggest problem the persistence of systemic institutions , which must necessarily be supported if they be shaken. “You can keep the profits, while just standing in bad times the taxpayer in good times.” This is not the right incentive to limit the risks. “The problem we can go out of the way by the institutions have increasingly financed by compulsory convertible bonds themselves.”
Source: n-tv.de
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