Sunday, December 21, 2014

Companies fear for Russian business – fund managers optimistic – ABC Online

Companies fear for Russian business – fund managers optimistic – ABC Online

Sonntag , 12.21.2014, 17:53
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ruble weakness, capital flight, Oil Price Drop: German companies fear drastic consequences the economic problems in Russia -. also for their own business

The German Industry and Commerce (DIHK) warns of growing threats in the case of a recession in the vast country. “The crisis of the Russian economy always leaves deeper skid marks in the Russian business German company,” said GCIC foreign trade director Volker Treier the “Bild am Sonntag”.

According to a survey by the German Chamber of Commerce in Russia among almost 300 companies had almost one in three German operation there lay off employees, the situation does not improve. “36 percent expect to have to cancel projects,” Treier.

ANY COMPANY THINKS ABOUT EIGHT RETREAT FROM RUSSIA BY

Ten percent of German companies have reported that their longtime business partner of Russian Asia orienting conditions. “After all, every eighth company is considering a withdrawal from Russia. The break many a business relationship is so before. “

One cause of the problems is in addition to the sanctions imposed by the West because of Moscow Ukraine’s policy of continued weak ruble. So has suffered substantial losses due to the decline in value as the consumer goods giant Henkel. “Of the 600 million euros that we have lost in the first nine months by the negative exchange rate effects on sales, comes up a significant share of the devaluation of the ruble,” said CEO Kasper Rorsted the “Rheinische Post”.

RUSSIA EXPORTS ARE LIKELY TO YEAR BY 20 PERCENT DECREASE

The recent turmoil in currency exchange rates also make German exporters to create. Because invoices for goods in euro at weaker foreign currency remains less at the box office, first car makers have already stopped their sales in Russia. The head of the Eastern Committee of German Economy Eckhard Cordes, expected by the end of a decline in Russia’s exports by 20 percent.

Also trading companies such as the Hamburg-based Otto Group are affected. “We drive carefully and have to adjust our prices flexible,” said Martin Schierer, head of the Otto Group in Russia, the German Press Agency. The plan is now a price increase of 10 to 15 percent. Moreover, investments planned to be discontinued or reduced.

MEMORIES OF RUBLE CRISIS OF 1998

Robert Halver, capital market expert Baader Bank, feels the heavy ruble crisis of 1998 recalls. “The sanctions of the West increasingly deploy devastating effect. The dilapidated rubles – drastic Russian interest rate hikes and currency interventions have taken no turnaround – the galloping inflation and the collapse in energy prices have the risk of another state bankruptcy increases, “he wrote in an analysis

On the other hand holds the co. boss of Deutsche Bank, Jürgen Fitschen, the difficulties still to this assessment: “The Russian economy is now in a better position to withstand the steep devaluation of the ruble,” he told the “Welt am Sonntag”. Moscow’s foreign exchange reserves are high, the public debt is relatively low.

FUND MANAGER SET NEXT TO RUSSIA

Also, fund manager more money in Russia. “Selected Russian bonds remain in our view, long-term intrinsic value,” said Daniel Ivascyn, chief investors in the world’s biggest bond investor Pimco, the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. From high volatility arising Invsetoren for new opportunities. In any case, he considered the impact of the current currency turmoil “in the financial system as a whole is limited,” Ivascyn said

Other investors set according to “Financial Times” (Saturday) also to the crisis as an opportunity. Fund Manager Justin Leverenz of Oppenheimer Funds go about with his focused on emerging markets fund further into Russia on a shopping spree. “Throughout the year, I bought more and more, because the prices are extraordinary,” quoted him the sheet. A similar situation be Lazard colleague James Donald. He had already experienced similar developments, said the fund manager of the “FT”. . “These are situations where you have to be brave”

relative optimism was seen in the past week, Commerzbank -Chefvolkswirt Jörg Krämer: “Apparently, the Russian economy has not yet lost the weight, the German economy . to pull down “, expressed similar the president of the engineering industry association VDMA, Reinhold Festge:” Russia does not have the power to overturn the German engineering “

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