outlook for the euro zone deteriorates further
The world economy will lose according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to gain momentum. The Washington-based financial institution lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.3 percent – that is 0.1 percentage points less than in the economic forecast in July. The reasons of the IMF called the danger of stagnation in the euro zone as well as geopolitical risks by the conflicts in the Middle East and in the Ukraine.
In the year 2015 the reported to determine economic performance in the world by 3.8 percent after the economic outlook in July still 4.0 percent growth was talk. “Global growth remains fragile and uneven”, says the IMF report. Developed countries, in particular the euro zone are still not fully emerged from the shadow of the financial crisis.
The experts of the IMF, therefore, suggest a continued loose monetary policy from to support the economy. In “a number of economies” could also foster the growth public investment in infrastructure. Especially Germany, the IMF recommends to spend more money for the modernization of road and rail network.
The United States sees the IMF after the winter-related economic downturn at the beginning again on a robust growth path. The gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy is expected to grow this year by 2.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared with July. For 2015, the IMF expects growth of 3.1 percent.
The outlook for the euro zone became cloudy, however. The IMF lowered its growth forecast for 2014 by 0.3 percentage points to 0.8 percent. In the coming year, economic output is expected to increase in the euro area by 1.5 percent instead of only 1.3 percent. Bad news was given by the IMF for France and especially Italy prepared, whose economy is expected to shrink this year by as much as 0.2 percent.
also corrected for Germany the IMF growth forecast for this year by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4 percent down. For 2015, the organization expects 1.5 percent growth in the Federal Republic.
cause for concern to the IMF continues the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the could affect gas supply in Europe. The fight against the Dschihadistenmiliz Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq could cripple the world economy through higher energy prices. Yet the economic impact of crises are but limited regionally.
Similarly rated the IMF, the Ebola epidemic, which have fallen in West Africa almost 3500 people died. So far, especially the economies of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone are affected. “If the outbreak reinforce and overlap considerably to the neighboring countries, he could more far-reaching consequences,” says the report of the Monetary Fund.
Among the emerging markets China remains the growth driver. For the second largest economy in the world, the IMF expects growth of 7.4 percent this year and 7.1 percent next year. Contrast, Brazil’s economy receives no growth spurt by the football World Cup in their own country and applies to only 0.3 percent. In Russia, in the Ukraine crisis imposed by the West sanctions noticeable, the growth forecast remains at meager 0.2 percent.
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