The permanent crisis in Greece and the unexpectedly strong growth slump in the US employ economists and investors for quite a while. With the economic slowdown and the stock market crash in China a third problem is now, however, added, that could possibly even harm the global economy even more than Euro-drama and US weakness together.
According worried the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported as guardian of global financial stability in its updated economic outlook for 2015 words. “Sudden declines in asset prices and an increase in volatility in the financial markets” remained one of the major downside risks to the global economy, the IMF economists warn in the updated version of the “World Economic Outlook” (WEO).
They refer to the Chinese benchmark index Shanghai Composite, which was shot within one year by more than 150 percent in the air and now since its peak in mid-June in a short time more than 30 percent of its value – has lost – and thus the equivalent of around three billion euros of investor assets.
fact that it was the two growth giants USA and China falter, albeit for completely different reasons, reflected currently increasingly in the official forecasts and statistics down. So recently warned the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in front of a prolonged period of weakness for the global economy and lowered his own economic outlook from 3.7 to 3.1 percent.
downward revision is accounted for the United States
In comparison, the correction takes still quite modest at the IMF out: instead of the previously expected 3.5 percent, economists in Washington expect only 3.3 percent growth this year worldwide. The growing concern for China, however, is not reflected so well reflected in the figures, at least, the outlook for the Middle Kingdom with a growth rate of 6.8 percent for this year and 6.3 percent for next year has remained unchanged.
“The bubble the Chinese stock market has burst, but only partially. The further correction potential remains a cause for concern, “the IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said in his final WEO press conference. The Frenchman cedes in September after seven years in office. That the IMF’s own forecast for China has not yet revised downwards, is mainly because that the stock market crash have so far shown no effect on the economy and the stock market in China is a much less important role for the economy as a whole played than the other countries was case, Blanchard.
But that also means that it should be the government in Beijing does not succeed to turn things around again using billions in economic stimulus programs and to dispel the growing doubts about the stock markets, likely the next economic forecast by the IMF for the country – and thus probably also for the global economy – be much worse. Currently accounts for about 15 percent of global economic output in China, about 17 percent to the United States. All 28 EU countries put together there, according to calculations by Eurostat on 18 percent.
But the United States as a counterweight to date almost unbreakable growth guarantors China currently offer no relief. On the contrary: The current downward correction in the IMF’s view is almost entirely due to the US and Canada. By 0.6 percent, the IMF economists have reduced the outlook for gross domestic product largest economy in the world this year.
The forecast for Canadian growth slipped with a decline of 0.7 percent even more pronounced downward. However, the unexpectedly sharp slump in the US was primarily due to temporary effects such as the extremely severe winter and the last falling investment in the important oil sector, write the IMF experts. “Overall, the forces of growth in the US will remain intact.”
Confident for Europe
Nevertheless, expects an increasing number of economists with the fact that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will postpone their planned for later this year turnaround in interest rates due to the weakening economy. From the perspective of the IMF that would be just the right strategy. According to the Washington experts openly advise in their almost simultaneously released US economic report of the Fed to once seen greater rates of increase in prices and wages, before the central bank should raise interest rates again.
Surprisingly confident the IMF is voted by comparison, for further growth in Europe – despite the continuous drama to Greece. Although the forecasts for the euro zone for this year remained unchanged and increased for the coming year only slightly by 0.1 percent to 1.7 percent. But in several euro area countries – such as Spain – were increased forecasts. The economic recovery in the euro area seemed largely intact, domestic economy and inflation develop robust, “said the IMF experts.
The only exception continues to provide Greece, where the drama of the possible Grexit and uncertainty about the country’s future constitute than originally predicted a significantly greater burden for the economy. As a positive sign for the rest of the euro area is however to be considered that the financial markets behave relative to the recent Events in Greece would have reacted, states the IMF “. So far, the events in Greece have led to any significant contagion”
Should show this but could “timely policy measures” to help in curbing such as these should in the worst case actually look like, is silent about the fund -. which Greece has recently been a loan installment of 1.6 billion euros guilty – albeit discreetly out.
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