09:09 clock
51 percent of Scots want to break away from Great Britain, according to polling firm YouGov, 49 percent want to maintain the Union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Reported the British “Times” on Sunday, which had given the survey in order. The Scots vote on 18 September stating to whether they want to be independent from the United Kingdom.
In the latest survey, the respondents who have not yet decided, were not counted. Counting them to support 47 percent of the independence, 45 percent want to keep the Union.
“This survey can and should be a wake up call for all who thought the outcome of the referendum’m getting fixed,” commented the campaign “Better together” (Better together) the report.
In August, the independence movement had gained many votes. In a second survey, the Unionists but still were just the beginning. 52 percent wanted to belong to Great Britain, 48 percent prefer to be independent, as the opinion research institute panel base determined by order of the “Yes” campaign, which promotes independence. If more than half of the Scots vote “Yes”, the country in the spring of 2016 would be independent. According
The “Times”, the British Queen Elizabeth II. makes now worried about an impending constitutional crisis and wants to be kept up to date daily. Officially, the palace is neutral, the paper relies on high-level officials. Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron wanted to go on Sunday to Scottish residence of the Queen, where they traditionally resident in the summer. On election campaign he would not take part at the weekend, said the government seat in London’s Downing Street. Cameron’s Conservative party has little support in Scotland.
The independence Scotland could economically hard hit
The Scots are inundated in the last days before the independence referendum propaganda. Chaos, currency fall and flight of capital promised some, prosperity and social justice the other. London “Unionist parties’ praise the solidarity of the United Kingdom (UK). Scotland’s independence leader Alex Salmond and the Nationalists Party SNP portray London as an imperialist power that has the Scots refused prosperity and social justice of the industrial reforms of Margaret Thatcher to the austerity of the current Tory government.
Now it is almost and the excitement rises. The pound fell against the dollar on half-year low, because hedge fund managers a possible “yes”; the London Treasury has hastily set up a crisis team: Goldman Sachs warned in a notice of a “Euro-like currency crisis within the sterling zone”. Uncertainty in currency question give only “a strong incentive for investors to withdraw capital from Scotland”
London took the risk of secession been rather left -. Partly because the economic consequences, in all difficult political consequences for the country could be played down: the “residual UK” would lose a tenth of its economic output, but any threat to the common economic space would be much more difficult to take Scotland. “The consequences of asymmetric independence would especially affect Scotland,” says a parliamentary committee. Fiscally neutral would be a break for London: tax revenues from the oil would go back, but also the high transfer payments to Scotland
Majority of uncertainty is the future currency of an independent Scotland.. London includes a formal monetary union with an independent Scotland and refers to the negative model of the euro zone. Without the political union that abandons Scotland to the outlet, a monetary union is not feasible. The rest-UK will not guarantee the debts of the small Scotland, nor will the Bank of England as a “lender of last resort” Scotland’s secure oversized financial sector. Not even with the threat of Scotland share of the UK national debt – about 100 billion pounds – not to take over, if Scotland does not get the pounds, Salmond could change that. “It’s the scariest thing I’ve heard in the whole debate,” said UK Prime Minister David Cameron. The London Treasury (Treasury) confirmed a long time ago already, that Britain guaranteed fully all British government bonds even without Scotland.
This week laid Treasury Minister Danny Alexander a letter by EU Commissioner Ollie Rehn after that also Salmond’s Plan B an unofficial monetary union after the “Panama” model calls into question. Scotland had to prove to his necessary after leaving the UK again EU membership application, that it “has the will and the capacity to join the euro.”
Scotland lives fiscally over his circumstances
In addition, Scotland fiscally lives beyond its means. While income and value added correspond to the average of the UK, the public expenditure per capita per year are higher by 1,200 pounds – Scotland better social facilities of free care for the elderly and free Wi study is subsidized by the rest-UK. Included oil revenue is Scotland’s deficit at 8.3 percent, well above the overall UK with 5.8 percent. Already in the first years of independence, the funding gap would amount to seven billion pounds. Scotland unfavorable age structure would allow the gap to grow faster than in the younger rest of the Union.
separatists want to close the gap with oil revenues and add one triggered by the independence productivity boost of 0.3 percent it. But many warn against excessive optimism. The independent budgetary authority OBR calculated their budgetary projections annually by five percent falling tax revenues from oil. In the last financial year they were 4 billion pounds only half as high as predicted by the SNP Scottish Government itself.
pollsters are certain that the economy is decisive on 18 September. Scots wanted to “just know the economic consequences of their decision,” says Professor John Curtice of the Glasgow University, who believes that 500 pounds a year more or less ranged for a yes or no. Prompt promised separatist leader Alex Salmond 1000 pounds as “bonus independence”, while the London Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Danny Alexander, the “UK dividend” at 1400 pounds apiece ansetzte – what Scotland would have to apply more without the rest. But reliable information has not brought the debate. Choices are no clear economic alternatives, but the safety of the status quo with all its frustrations known to the Scots – or unprovable vision of a just, fair and rosy future. (with AP)
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