Berlin – that is what an information campaign: With your own website, various brochures for the base and a message from Secretary-General Peter Tauber now also advertises the CDU among their members for the transatlantic free trade agreements, short TTIP. Finally, the theme solve “an awful lot of emotions” out, says Tauber.
In the SPD fear made before genetically modified foods or secret, which meets arbitration courts already that Federal Minister Sigmar Gabriel was forced on the weekend to a power word for so much resistance. The coalition partner however, we see the theme as an opportunity to raise the profile: In the TTIP debate, the Union shall present as the voice of economic reason
This could be difficult, because now distributed on the basis of argumentation aids are vulnerable. . This is particularly true for the dearest of all politicians promise: additional jobs.
In the CDU-brochure “meaning and content of TTIP” states: “Estimates of additional jobs in the EU range from 400,000 to 1.3 million ‘. The Federal Republic seems to benefit most. “Germany can expect up to 200,000 additional jobs.” This value is also found in the CDU-flyer “why is TTIP good for Germany”
But the overall positive outlook, the authors of several studies have puzzled together. Specified as an apparent minimum increase of the number of parties of 400,000 jobs is actually the value that a study by the Munich-based Ifo Institute for the Economics Ministry in the best case expected. This scenario is a “non-tariff barriers ambitious reduction” ahead. Other hand, should be eliminated by TTIP only customs duties, according to the scientists would have no appreciable impact on the labor market.
Jobs would not only created but also destroyed
The number of 1.3 million jobs comes from a second Ifo study for the Bertelsmann Foundation . This value refers to a “deep liberalization”, which would go far beyond the reduction of customs duties. In addition, while the positive effect in the EU are significant job losses in other countries with respect to -. Solely in Canada over 100,000 jobs would therefore be omitted, in Turkey nearly 95,000
So that’s just in the global competition, now could some Union supporters argue – that we win in Germany added 200,000 jobs. This figure, however, refers to the optimischste acceptance of the Bertelsmann study. Thus in Germany could create up to 181,092 new jobs – a value that was rounded up by the CDU generously to 200,000. The study for the Ministry of Economic Affairs on the other hand is only a maximum of 110,000 new jobs in Germany.
As long as the details of TTIP are unknown, anyway all outlook remains highly uncertain – this applies to both supporters and opponents of the Agreement. In the CDU, but they seem determined now to start from the ideal case. Finally, it clearly in many places that you can strive for more than one inch reduction, SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned from the German branch of the party.
The fact that the predictions cited in the question of additional jobs, sometimes dramatically different, the party worried little. “Why the results are so different, you would have to turn to illustrate the Institute. We did not want to lose these possible interpretations, but to highlight the positive effects for Germany and Europe,” it said of the federal office. A particularly original explanation is there for the rounding up of the job forecast for Germany by 19,000 points: In return you have the number of EU-wide jobs completed by 45,000 to 1.3 million.
That with TTIP everything runs optimally, suggests also the site of the CDU: “Generally speaking, all in the EU have something from TTIP,” it says. “An average household about 545 euros more per year.”
Here the authors cite a study by the UK Centre for Economic Policy Research commissioned by the EU Commission. The value refers to – surprise – an “ambitious and comprehensive” free trade agreements. Should it turn out less ambitious, the households would benefit with 306 euros. And if only tariffs fall, they had just 99 euros in my pocket – in 2027
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