On Sunday decide the Greeks “Yes” or “No” to the demands for reform he creditors. But what will happen if the vote is fixed? If Tsipras in office? And how to react the negotiators? FOCUS Online presents five scenarios
The Greeks say “yes”
Scenario 1: Premier Alexis Tsipras RECOURSE despite his defeat in the office and begin negotiations on a third aid package to the terms of the creditors. But actually he rejects their requirements from yes. Therefore, the negotiations will be difficult. And most creditors have already lost confidence in Tsipras
Scenario 2:. The Government of Alexis Tsipras resigns. In order to remain fit to stand trial, the parties in parliament are trying to form a unity government – despite the large differences between the left Syriza party and the conservative opposition. The government consists of technocrats who do not come from the parties: economists, lawyers, civil servants. They negotiate with donors a third rescue package. The chances of an agreement are well
Scenario 3:. The Tsipras government resigns and calls new elections. The possible at the earliest after 30 days – possibly later. Greece loses valuable time, because the donors have no negotiating partner. Such a long period of uncertainty would be extremely detrimental to the country. The banks run out of money, the economy comes to a standstill.
According to surveys, Syriza would incidentally a good chance to win a new election again
Video:. Therefore, not all Greeks to vote in the referendum
The Greeks say “No”
Scenario 4: Tsipras wants to again negotiate with donors – on his terms. For Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble, but also for the Finns, or the Italians that would be unacceptable. It is expected that one shows up and meets for talks, the negotiations but then breaks off quite quickly
Scenario 5:. The EU is trying to prevent an economic collapse in Greece – whether Greece remains in the euro zone or not. Therefore, again flowing billions this time without official Hilfspalet. So the banks are stabilized, for example. Statements by EP President Martin Schulz to the possibility of “emergency loans” point in this direction
Scenario 6:. The creditors refuse Tsipras any help, the tablecloth is cut. The ECB removes the Greek banks their assistance, the country is running out of cash. Instead ordered from the euro zone excrete, now follows the Graccident: the economy collapses, the people become impoverished, imported goods become unaffordable drugs almost
As a result, Athens could be forced to introduce a parallel currency in the form of government IOUs. to bail out the banks. Debentures could also be used to pay civil servants. This would de facto exit from the Euro equal. Greece would then introduce its own currency, and hope to become competitive on a radical devaluation again.
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Conclusion
A ” Yes’ vote would lead immediately to the conclusion of a new assistance program with donors from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and ECB. Several parliaments, including the Bundestag, which is already in the summer, would have to agree to a settlement. Meanwhile, a technical solution would be found to keep the state and economy running and to prevent a collapse of the banking system.
At the same time, it is in a “no” However, it is unlikely that Europeans stand by see if Greece slips deeper into crisis. Not only it would be politically difficult to justify to let the Greeks with the potentially catastrophic humanitarian consequences alone. But a worsening of the crisis could also have serious consequences for the euro. Finally, a euro exit would also mean that donors no longer get back the money they have Greece borrowed
Video. There is a positive effect of the Greek debate
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