The timing is piquant. One day before the vote in the Bundestag on the opening of negotiations for a third rescue package for Greece brings Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) once the Grexit on time into play. It refers to the additional financing needs of the country, which is estimated at more than 80 billion euros. In Germany radio on Thursday he threw the question: “Can you have a financing requirement of the order, as it is now called – and those are more likely to have the conservative estimates – without a real haircut handle”
Author:. Manfred Schäfer, economics correspondent in Berlin
However, a so-called “haircut” is not compatible with membership in the monetary union in his words. “That’s the situation. But we will start negotiations, we will make every effort, but to the regulations we need to talk. “
Behind Schäuble’s admonishing words are certain tactical considerations, but also serious doubts whether it can enforce the tough reforms over the years with Alexis Tsipras, which are necessary for the country to be self-financing at the end again. If that does not work, it runs just yet on a haircut addition, the – as the Just not tired is to emphasize – contrary to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. Specifically, he puts on Article 125 paragraph 1 from which prohibits the European Union and the Member States to shoulder debt burdens of another Member State (“non-assistance clause”) – by the way throughout the EU, regardless of the monetary union
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What does that mean? For the interpretation of Finance looks back on a decision of the European Court. In the so-called Pringle-judgment this has determined that it is the Union and Member States only allowed to make another State financial aid if thereto strict conditions are attached which are used when the receiving Member State to pursue a sound budgetary policy.
But for a real haircut, for the International Monetary Fund is increasingly based, the government would barely move from extreme left and right parties in Athens to comply with the strict requirements of the emergency program. In addition, the Court assumes that the recipient state is in spite of the financial assistance for the liabilities to its creditors and the responsible EU and other Member States will not take over.
Thursday, July 16
At least until Thursday holds the European
Central Bank (ECB), the emergency loans for the Greek banks
unchanged. Today, the Governing Council advises. With a
Increased by the Governing Council is predominantly not counted. A
rapid opening of the banks or a lifting of capital controls
Experts do not expect regardless.
The Euro Group will host a conference call on the other
Advise steps after the Greek parliamentary vote.
Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) also receives his
US counterpart Jacob Lew in Berlin.
Friday, July 17
The German Bundestag is true in a special meeting
on the opening of negotiations from - if Athens until then all
Has fulfilled conditions. Once the negotiations have to
MEPs also decide on the ESM rescue package before it
can enter into force. Despite discontent within the Union is a
expect broad support for the talks.
Even the Austrian parliament comes despite
Summer break on Friday for a special session
together. A committee has already given the green light.
Greek T-bills, which are short-term bonds
Maturity, amounting to one billion euros will be due.
Monday, July 20
Until that date, Athens is a first proposal
submit to modernize the management. Their inefficiency applies
as one of the biggest obstacles in the implementation of reforms.
In addition, Athens has a total of around 3.5 billion euros at the ECB
repay. Should this payment fail, should the European
Its Central Bank, according to experts hardly able to continue Ela loans
allow to Greek banks.
Wednesday, July 22
Athens needs to adopt further reforms. So should
Accelerated trial and the directive on the reorganization and
Bank resolution are implemented.
While Schäuble contract and judgment interpreted narrowly, the governments in Paris and Rome here seem a bit more generous. Schaeuble rejects not only a real haircut in the monetary union, but also debt dilations and further rate reductions if they reduce the present value of the Greek public debt significantly. This would seem like a haircut, the argument goes. However, this has not stopped the last time the federal government of consent to such action. This clearly suggests that the scope of the politicians is greater than Schäuble now wants to admit.
More Regardless of the non-assistance clause remains on
Member States probably are free to send checks to Athens. As the German Minister has reported to the negotiations over the weekend in Brussels, but there was no rush of colleagues who wanted to give the bridge loan Greece money needed to finance the country during the summer months until the negotiations on the third Utility will be completed. Donations would certainly be possible to European law. But it apparently no one thinks, not even bilateral loans would give any member state Greece yet.
The latest developments can be found always in our live blog.
Liable
The Union not for the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of Member States and does not enter for the joint without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of another Member State and does not enter for the joint without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project.
(Article 125, paragraph 1 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union)
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