Every now and then Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) is itself a loss. On the question of whether 2015, the Euro-crisis returns, the Finance Minister said shortly after Christmas, “I am not a prophet.” The statement reflects well against the diffuse mood at the beginning of this year. Should we now fear for the euro have – or not
After a long respite Europe’s debt crisis has collected again?. Once again, the timer Greece. In Athens must take place after this week and the third attempt failed to elect a new president on 25 January elections. In surveys of the Left-wing populist Alexis Tsipras lies ahead. . If he wins, he wants to end the “German austerity” and terminate all reform agreements with Greece’s lenders
Europe would be faced with the question: If you leave Greece go bankrupt with the risk of euro-exit? Or you save the land at any price, to preserve the monetary union of a possible break-up?
In fact, a controlled avulsion now seems possible. “We are now better prepared for retirement than they were a few years ago,” says a member of the government of “Welt am Sonntag”. “The plans are still all in the drawer.”
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (both CDU) held a secession from the common currency for manageable, even the news magazine reported, citing government sources. The reasons for that the progress was made since the crisis highlight of 2012, the Euro-zone. According to “mirror” the federal government holds a withdrawal of Greece from the euro zone is inevitable when Tsipras takes over the government.
The federal government responded on sunday “mirror” report. “There is no change of course,” said Deputy government spokesman George warrior. He recalled that the southern European crisis country had earlier met its obligations. You assume that because nothing will change in the future.
Greeks are fed up
According to most economists, the euro zone could, however, take the exit Athens today. And yet, this step is associated with great risks. If the austerity measures in Greece is deselected, the arguments about saving and reforming could also elsewhere boil. “In countries such as France, the resistance to the reform agenda will be stronger,” expects Henning Vöpel, co-head of the Hamburg Institute of International Economics. “The whole euro rescue strategy Angela Merkel geriete shaken.” And with that yet again the whole monetary union.
The recent crisis in Greece falls exactly in the period in which the draconian reforms beginning to pay off. Since the first rescue in 2010, Athens was subjected to pressure from his backers a hard shock treatment. And has achieved initial success, the state is generating interest before spending a budget surplus. Between July and September, the economy grew by 0.7 percent -. So than in any other country in the euro zone
Nevertheless, the troika of the EU -Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently with the pace of reform dissatisfied. Therefore, the recent withdrawal from the rescue package on hold. Now the Greeks are fed up. Because the situation is depressing, despite all hope. Since 2010, economic output fell by 20 percent, one in four has no job.
Tsipras calls to restructure its debts
The dramatic economic decline plays SYRIZA chief Tsipras in the cards. If he wins, Europe face in February before hot weeks. So Tsipras calls to restructure its debts for his country. “The demand for a great haircut, even at the cost of exit is, logically,” said Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. Greece just got twice as many unemployed as in May 2010. “The sooner realizes the policy that the current course is failed, the better it is for everyone involved.”
However, the Euro-Partner unlikely to be ready for a haircut to the extent that the Tsipras in mind. Not so much because of potential losses. So far, Athens has received 240 billion euros in aid. Germany as the largest creditor is liable according to calculations of Berenberg Bank for this newspaper, with around 70 billion.
“The sum but only mentions all the sums which, if necessary, would have to be negotiated. Even in the extreme case of a Greek double disaster with state bankruptcy and euro exit the real losses would probably be much lower, “said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding. With 15.2 billion Germany is one of the first Greek bailout, with 38.5 billion for the second.
threaten Further losses of around six billion euros if the European Central Bank (ECB) Greek government bonds would have to completely write off. In addition, the Bank of Greece has 38.5 billion euros in so-called target liabilities to the euro system, the hypothetical German share here is 10.4 billion euros.
ECB may Greek banking system go bust at any time let
“Significant sums are usually self at a state bankruptcy with subsequently agreed haircut repaid,” says Schmieding. With a low rate refund of 50 percent, the German maximum loss would decrease to 35 billion euros. A failure of the Target balances is unlikely, as these liabilities from the Greek central bank could be covered by the bank’s assets in the long run. The financial losses would be painful, but bearable.
Much would weigh heavier, which signal Berlin and Brussels would send it to other euro-countries, they should get involved in a haircut and Greece permit the same time, the reforms to say goodbye. “If the Greek government does not follow suit, a possible Greek exit can not be ruled out in principle,” says Kai Konrad, member of the Scientific Advisory Council of the Federal Ministry of Finance.
Probably it is first come to weeks of negotiations. The troika should always keep the city of Athens only until the next round of water. Without the last tranche of the bailout package for Greece is insolvent in mid-March. The ECB may have to go bankrupt at any time the Greek banking system by severs the emergency loans ELA, no longer accepted Greek as collateral for central bank money or European government bond buys with the exception of Greek papers.
By 2012, a bust of Athens and the exit of the country was a horror scenario. Behind this was the fear of the financial markets: When a country leaving the euro zone, investors would think other states could follow the logic of the government. The markets would then bet against these countries. Just like dominoes, a euro member after another tip over.
From panic no trace
Today would be the situation but another. Ireland and Portugal do not need outside help more. The Spanish banking sector has recovered. The euro zone has a rescue package for bankrupt threatened countries. The banking union reduces the risk of contagion to the financial system. The ECB wants to buy from this year government bonds, ie finance States by printing money. Could quickly go broke that Greece also another country, therefore, is unlikely. Read that was on the reaction of financial markets on the Greek election decision. No trace of panic.
And yet a Greek exit involves risks. What if Greece became an icon for this is that saving the euro exchange rate has reached the limits of political legitimacy? What if the debt-ridden, barely growing Italy suspends its delicate reform efforts again? “If Europe politically rotates and moves away from all reform efforts, which would be extremely dangerous. That would be a whole new dimension,” warns HWWI boss Vöpel. “Self-government bond purchases by the ECB would then be ineffective and probably not to keep the stability of Europe.”
“Such a move would be at very high risk for the stability of the euro area connected, “says the economy Peter Bofinger. “Even though the Greek situation is not comparable to the other Member States would thus a ghost left out of the bottle, which would be difficult to manage.”
The world has ever had such an experience. 2008 it was thought that the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers would be put away. The risk to err again, Europe would have to accept if Athens does not want to continue on our common path.
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