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| Investment strategists forecast for 2015 increased volatility, certainly not exaggerate , On the contrary: Reactions to the drumbeat of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) triggered price movements that recall the extreme volatility of the last of October. Up to an incredible 28% of the value of the euro against the Swiss franc has imploded after the SNB in advance by that tooth and nail, with enormous Swiss franc amounts defended euro floor has revealed. The not exactly known for above-average volatility due to its pronounced defensive mix Swiss Market Index has the capitulation of the federal monetary authorities in just two days by 14% erleichtert.Nicht less bestaunenswert was the development of Dax, the first time and on Friday over the thresholds of 10 100 10,200 points was catapulted. Immediately after the announcement of the SNB, the index slumped on Thursday to 9 637, to then sprint in a spectacular U-turn for the first time in the new year on the threshold of 10,000 meters. About the reason for the vehement climb must be puzzled not last long. The market is derived from the SNB move from the presumption that the announcement of a large-scale, government securities enclosing bond purchase program of the European Central Bank (ECB) is hardly to be doubted. And in the “models” US and Japan went with the purchase programs by central banks always rising share prices associated. ECB turning and AngelpunktVor all of the ECB will initially depend on whether it is again only a short trip of Dax about 10 000er brand is like in the summer and in December of last year, or if the German defaults index this time sustained above the threshold set or whether he can continue to grow. If the expectations of bond purchases disappointed likely to be a serious setback result sein.Die Helaba doubts that the Dax itself can hold its own in the case of the announcement of a major bond purchase program by the ECB than 10 000. The price volatility in the equity markets have increased tremendously over the past few weeks. High volatility is always a sign of valuation uncertainty, and occasions for present there were enough, the Bank having regard, inter alia, Greece and the Rohstoffbaisse.Etwas more clarity, market participants expected, inter alia, of the corporate earnings season. Although commodity prices have fallen significantly since mid-2014 earnings estimates were corrected until recently in Europe and in the US mostly down. “Given the just in the US indices rather high rating, the medium-term earnings outlook would but noticeable improvement to justify higher prices,” says the analyst. In addition, after the completion of the US bond purchase program it suffered a major driver course. In Europe, after all, am the ECB with its QE program in the wings. Whether this will be enough to keep the Dax permanently above the 10 000er brand, i s questionable. Finally, the relationship between total assets and stock market development was here have so far not as pronounced as in the United States. That the existing uncertainty among market participants quickly dissolve into thin air and equities “from start” will not be expected. “Rather, the volatility is likely to remain for the time being be high and to observe a rapid change of investor risk appetite.” While the Helaba for the Dax a setback in 8700 and for the fourth quarter expected in the first quarter stood at 9,800 meters, is the WGZ Bank optimistic with a twelve-month forecast of 10,800 meters. “We maintain despite diverse problems, our optimistic stock market forecasts and our industry weighting in. We remain firmly convinced that stocks due to the prevailing conditions, particularly in the medium represent to long-term time horizon, the most attractive asset class. Thus, we expect full year 2015 fueled by further liquidity-c reating measures of the ECB, rising prices as blueprint we see here the performance of the S &. P 500 during the massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. ” The observed correlation there was impressive. (Börsenzeitung, 01/17/2015) | |||||||||||||
| Börsenzeitung, 17.01.2015, Author Christopher Kalbhenn, Number 11, Page 1, 610 words | |||||||||||||
 URL to article: https://www.boersen-zeitung.de/index.php?li=1&artid=2015011001&titel=Dax-ueber-10-200-katapultiert | |||||||||||||
     
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