Wednesday, June 15, 2016

“Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union”: In British withdrawal from the EU Germany threatens an economic slump – ABC Online

Wednesday, 06.15.2016, 11:11 am · from FOCUS Online expert Stefan Biel Meier
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Fear in front of a “Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union” is growing. On the stock market, it goes with the courses for days down. And many companies are worry is spreading. For the German economy could get painful to feel the consequences of a withdrawal of Britain.

I still do not expect a “Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union”, even if the outcome of the referendum is likely to be scarce. If there but the outlet, the consequences for Europe and the UK would be immense. The actual leaving of the country would indeed until at least take place in two years, but already in the transitional period can be expected economic burdens.

For the German economy much is at stake, because the UK is one of the main trading partners , With an export volume of nearly 90 billion euros Germany continued last year as many goods in the United Kingdom from than ever before. Exports increased only in 2015 by almost 13 percent and thus contributed to the difficult global economic times considerably to the stabilization of the German economy in.



If the British economy is suffering, suffering the German with

The effects an EU exit Britain would therefore be felt immediately for the German export industry. While possible administrative trade restrictions by a “Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union” would probably take effect in a few years, a slowdown on the island is also likely to be reflected quickly in German exports. Affected would certainly also equipment investment in Germany.

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Stefan Biel Meier is since 2010 the chief economist and head of research at DZ Bank, the central institution of more than 850 cooperative banks.

For the “Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union”, there are two scenarios

We calculate the “lenient” scenario I with a slight slowdown from the second half of 2016, triggered by a loss of German export growth.

second-round effects on other countries are not assumed here. The growth in Germany is likely about a quarter percentage point fail in this scenario, in the coming year is lower than in our baseline scenario, which assumes a vote for the EU remain in Britain.

If the connection to the “Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union ‘vote to develop a greater European crisis (our scenario II), the impact on the German economy will be much stronger. The negative effects are clearly showing already in the second half of 2016, we expect Germany even with a (slight) recession at the turn of 2016/2017.

In addition to exports, which will be negatively affected in the whole of Europe , should the business investment under uncertainty about the continuation of the EU suffer greatly. The overall economic growth rate may be in the course of next year, although re-stabilize, but for the whole of 2017 it drops to only 0.5 percent. The result of the refugee immigration anyway expected rise in unemployment is likely to increase in this scenario still

Video:. Ex-foreign minister promotes the “Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union”

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