Saturday, June 25, 2016

Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-consequences: leaving Germany carmaker the island? – FAZ – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Auto experts are divided on the consequences of the British-Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union vote for vehicle manufacturers and suppliers. While Stefan Bratzel from the University of Applied Sciences in Bergisch Gladbach, a creeping migration of car production from the UK expected Ferdinand Dudenhöffer even sees a positive impetus.

“medium and long term benefits of car Location England by a long-term depreciation of the pound” says Dudenhoeffer. This currency effect would be positive for manufacturers such as BMW and its Mini brand, and for Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover, because their production there would favorable for the global market.

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Dudenhöffer, Professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen, although also expects negative consequences because there will be turmoil in the financial sector and thereby general reluctance – these are only short term. The British had voted this week for an exit from the European Union.

2016 and 2017 would significantly fewer cars are sold in the UK, so Dudenhoeffer. Was it in 2015 still 2.63 million new cars sold in the UK, this number decreases, according to his forecast to 2.45 million in 2016 and 2017 to 1.9 million. “From 2018, the situation has again caught our estimation, the British car market recovers and is around 2020 reach its former level.”

the United Kingdom is in the favor of Dudenhöffer For the global auto market anyway insignificant. “The world car market will continue and will not be significantly affected in the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union Shake years 2016 and 2017,” says Dudenhoeffer.

Bratzel other hand, is much more skeptical, he expects “significant negative impact” of Brexits on the automotive industry. Most it meet manufacturers like Nissan and BMW, who works with high capacity on the island. The location of England would in other EU countries less attractive – Bratzel expected “a slow exit the automotive industry of the island”

Already over think every manufacturer or supplier planned investments because of uncertainty and possibility of higher complexity costs.. “Medium and long term can also be expected with the relocation of the island in the EU”, Bratzel said. The EU’s negotiations with the British should be long and difficult because the EU wants to deter imitators.

BMW has more than 200 000. Minis built in England last year and it exports half in the EU. Nissan and forming part of the Indian Tata Group manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover produced each around 500 000 cars in the UK, Toyota 190 000 and the GM subsidiary Opel-Vauxhall 140,000, Bratzel said.

Yet another opinion has Willi Diez from Nürtingen Institute for automotive Research. Though he says that car exports from Germany to the UK are due to the initially weaker pound more expensive and Daimler, Audi and others have a hard time. But in the long run, the pound will return stronger, Diez. The reason: The financial center Britain could become a kind of second Switzerland in Europe, where investments are not exposed to the access of EU fiscal policy. This would strengthen the financial center of London, which would give the pound exchange rate boost. This in turn would be good for sales and German cars

Peter walking from the consulting firm Ernst & amp. Young believes it is too early for precise forecasts. Only should be clear whether it goes further, for example, with a trade Saves shaft between the EU and the UK on the model of Norway or Switzerland. Only then was foreseeable to what extent trade between the EU and the United Kingdom was affected or not -. With its positive or negative effects on Germany’s automotive industry

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