Fed: rate hike after Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-vote – WirtschaftsWoche

The US central bank shifts the next interest rate rise on the period after the British vote on an EU exit.

The monetary authorities to Fed chief Janet Yellen chose a good week before the expected by the financial community with trepidation referendum the key rate to remain in a range of 0.25 and 0.5 percent. The Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union called exit strategy had been taken into the calculus, Yellen acknowledged on Wednesday: “It was one of the factors that have been incorporated into our decision today.” The effects of a British EU exit could also hit the US economy.

The central bankers signaled, however, that they still want to venture two rate moves upwards 2016th The first I’m probably in the summer: “We will act in the next few months when it should be applied,” Yellen increasing told

In. July is not off the table. Should the Fed tighten monetary policy next month or in September, this is also true in view of the forthcoming presidential elections, many experts as a smart move: For the looming battle between the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton in the battle for the White House is likely before the elections in November make monetary policy steps a political issue.

Central banks around the world ease policy

more and more central banks worldwide interest

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Source: Reuters;. Stand March 2015

• 1. January – Uzbekistan

  The Central Bank of Uzbekistan sets its refinancing rate to nine percent of previously ten percent down

  .

• 15th January – Switzerland

  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is making a radical change and make the minimum exchange rate of the franc against the euro. The monetary authorities justify their surprising decision with the increasingly strong dollar and the euro are declining. At the same time the penalty interest rate on deposits of banks will be increased to 0.75 percent at the central bank by 0.25 percent.

• 15th January – Egypt

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Egypt lowers surprisingly the key interest rate by 0.5 points. The rates for overnight deposits and loans will be reduced to 8.75 or 9.75 percent.

• 16th January – Peru

  Peru central bank lowers surprisingly the key rate to 3.25 from 3.5 percent previously. . Economic data for the country, which were published shortly before had, been very weak

• 21st January – Canada

  The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 0.75 percent. So she ended the longest period with unchanged interest rates since 1950 -. Since September 2010, the key interest rate had stood at one percent

• 22nd January – ECB

  The European Central Bank ( ECB ) announces one of the biggest bond-buying programs of all time. Overall, the monetary authorities state bonds and other securities with a volume of 1.14 trillion euros decide to purchase. . With the purchases is to begin in March

• 24th January – Pakistan

  Pakistan central bank lowers its key rate to 8.5 from 9.5 percent previously. They justified this with a weaker inflationary pressures in the wake of falling global oil prices.

• 28th January – Singapore

  The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosens its monetary policy to fuel low inflation. She announced to curb the appreciation of the Singapore dollar against a basket of foreign currency funds. . Inflation expectations have changed considerably since October 2014, established the central bankers of the city-state to step

• 28th January – Albania

  The Albanian central bank sets the key interest rate down to a record low of two percent. Last year she had already cut interest rates three times, most recently in November.

• 30th January – Russia

  Russia’s central bank cuts key interest rate for the supply of banks with cash to 15 from 17 percent. This is a sharp turnaround since the central bank had 2014 Interest reins only been tightened. The Western sanctions because of the Ukraine conflict and the fall in oil prices have triggered a capital flight from Russia and the ruble sent plummeting

• . 3 February – Australia

  The Reserve Bank of Australia RBA lowers its key rate to a record low. The key interest rate now stands at 2.25 percent so. . With the move, the monetary authorities want to boost, among other things, the economy

• . 4 February / January 7 – Romania

  Romania Central Bank lowers in two steps the target rate by 0.5 points to a record low of 2.25 percent

• . 5 February / January 29 / January 22 / January 19 – Denmark

  The Danish central bank sets its interest rates down four times in less than three weeks. It also intervenes regularly in the currency market to defend the coupling of the crown to the euro.

• 12th February – Sweden

  Sweden central bank lowered its key interest rate for securities repurchase transactions with the commercial banks – the so-called repo rate – at minus 0.1 per cent from zero percent , . At the same time, it announces that, to buy government bonds to ten billion crowns

• 17th February – Indonesia

  The Central Bank of Indonesia is surprisingly lowered interest rates by 0.25 points to 7.5 percent. It is the first reduction in three years. Economists had not expect this.

• 18th February – Botswana

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Botswana lowers its key interest rate by one point to 6.5 percent. The economic growth and the inflation outlook would allow such a move, said the monetary authorities of the African country.

• 23rd February – Israel

  The Bank of Israel cuts its key interest rate to 0.1 from 0.25 percent previously. It is the first reduction in six months. Background is, among other things, the fight against the dangers of deflation and the appreciation of the currency shekels.

• 24th February / January 20 – Turkey

  The Central Bank of Turkey lowers its key interest rate in two steps by a total of 0.75 points to 7.5 percent. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called after the second interest rate easing the Fed to even initiate more steps to stimulate the economy.

• 28th February – February 4 – China

  The Chinese central bank lowered their key interest to 5.35 from 5.6 percent previously. The new rate is the development of economic growth, prices and the employment situation appropriately. The central bank had previously announced in early February that the financial institutions will no longer must hold as much capital as reserve. This is intended for more liquidity provided in the financial cycle of the world’s second largest economy and lending are pushed.

• . 4 March / January 15 – India

  The Indian central bank sets the base rate in two steps by 0.25 points to 7.5 percent down. The Reserve Bank of India (RSB) reacts with the monetary easing at last meager economic data for the production and lending. India’s economy is currently going through a phase comparatively weak growth.

Trump does not apply in any case as trailer Yellens: He has already announced its intention to appoint as President long a Republican to the top of the Fed. However, the central bank does not squint with one eye on the election campaign, said Yellen. For the central bank, the economic data had the upper hand.

But overlooking the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union had already investors anticipated that the Fed would now keep quiet feet. The British vote on June 23. The output is considered completely open. For weeks the issue overshadows the development in the global financial markets. If the EU’s “Goodbye” Brits say Experts predict a global market tremors and a slowing of the global economy. “Yellen did everything right: the financial markets could be confident that they can ditch the June deadline for the rate hike because of a possible Brexits – otherwise the uncertainty would have been even greater,” said the chief economist of Targo Bank, Otmar Lang.

These are the winners and losers of the currency weakness

• winner Exporters

  The flood of money the European Central Bank (ECB) has sent the euro plummeting. According to analysts euro could soon cost less than one US dollar – the first time in over twelve years. A weak euro will help companies in the euro zone who wish to sell goods outside the currency area. Because their cars or machines are cheaper on world markets – for example in major markets such as Asia or America. The demand for products “Made in Germany” or other euro countries should attract. Already in 2014 sold Germany so many goods abroad than ever before. However: After all, 37 percent of German exports go to the euro zone. There, the exchange rate does not matter.

• Winner economy

  more exports = more production = more jobs. Quite so simple, it is not in practice, but the ECB’s rate with zero interest rates and flood of money is also aimed in this direction. But the price will be companies from the euro area more competitive thanks to the low euro exchange rate. Thus, the chances are good that they sell more and their factories are better utilized. This could create new jobs in the medium term. All of which brings forward the local economy.

• Winner DAX companies

  “the billion-gift” headlined the “Handelsblatt” on 22 January, when the ECB decided her gigantic bond purchase program. The loose monetary policy of the central bank could export-oriented German companies, according to calculations of Commerzbank in the current year twelve billion euros in addition to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) flush into the coffers – but because the euro against the dollar loses value. From Euro decline accordingly especially benefit those companies that bills and wages paid in Euros, but settle in dollars.

• losers importers

  a person receiving goods or raw materials from abroad, has to adjust to higher costs. For key commodities such as oil are traded internationally in dollars. If the euro loses value against the dollar, such imports for consumers in the euro area tend to be more expensive. Therefore, a weak euro is good news for the export nation Germany even at first glance, commented the Foreign Trade Association BGA: “Without the low commodity prices, the weak Euro would leave an indelible mark on our import bill and thus increase the sales prices in the export.” Would be in Germany failed the fall in prices for gasoline and fuel oil in recent months even more apparent when the euro exchange rate had not so strong given way.

• losers holidaymakers

  holidays in Switzerland or in the United States are more expensive when the euro against other major currencies lose value. Late January figured the Association of German Banks (BdB) before: The purchasing power of a euro in Switzerland amounts to only about 55 cents. That is, goods and services were there almost twice as expensive as in Germany at this time on average. Even for trips to other non-euro countries like Britain or Turkey Consumers need access from Euro countries deeper into their pockets. . On the other hand, a trip to Berlin, Athens or on the Côte d’Azur is attractive to American and Chinese

• loser companies

  in order to expand its business outside the euro zone companies need to take from the euro area tend to have more money in hand. Anyone who wants to build a factory in China or in the US about and it paid in the local currency, puts into euros in future strikes.

• losers non-Euro states

  While the US Federal Reserve will make its monetary floodgates foreseeable again, the ECB moves a precisely opposite course. This increases the risk that there is a “currency war”. With its multi-billion dollar bond purchases, the ECB had “opened a door behind which the risk of devaluation Wettlaufes lurking” criticized BGA President Anton F. Börner. Experience shows that there are only losers in such cases.

But not only the worried glance across the Atlantic is likely the Fed cause to push increases in the key rate to supply the banks with cash on the back burner: even the flat ones start the American economy to the year and a surprisingly weak jobs report in May provided the central bank good reasons, the interest rate reins yet not to attract. However, Yellen expects that the situation on the job market after the recent Hangover will brighten again. The economy will continue to grow this year in moderate pace, the Fed chief.

The central bank aims full employment and stable prices. She had recently to cope with a setback as job growth lagged in May with 38,000 far below expectations. These figures raise doubts about the stability of the recovery arise, particularly as the US economy at the beginning hardly grew. Bad news came now from the industry: companies cutting production in May more than expected. The business between New York and San Francisco makes the strong dollar to provide, the US products more expensive abroad. Finally, the Fed had raised rates in December – the first time in nearly a decade.