“Only” 6.8% growth in China? Workers in a factory
Despite the favorable oil prices and the recovery in the United States, the world economy will grow by predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is slower than expected this year. The IMF screwed his economic outlook for global growth by 0.3 points to 3.5 percent down. For Germany, the IMF predicts only 1.3 growth this year and 1.5 percent next year. These are 0.2 and 0.3 points less than the previous forecast in October, as is clear from the report that the IMF is presented in Beijing on Tuesday.
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The world economy is benefiting from the low oil prices, but the benefits of negative factors such as weaker investment ” more than compensated, “said IMF Research Director Olivier Blanchard. “The world is facing severe and complicated cross-currents,” he said. “On the one hand, the decline in oil prices has a positive effect on larger economies. On the other hand affect poorer long-term prospects in many parts of the world demand, which triggers a strong undertow. “
worried about stagnation
For the euro-zone economic outlook due to weaker prospects for investment by 0.2 points to 1.2 per cent growth was reduced this year. 2016 to only 1.4 percent – 0.3 points less than previously expected. In the Euro-zone as well as in Japan, the IMF looks worried stagnation and low inflation. Risks to the global economy also be seen in a volatility on global financial markets – particularly in developing countries, where the low oil prices, especially oil exporters made vulnerable
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The correction of the previous forecast was based on the slower growth in China, Russia, the Euro-zone, Japan and reduced activities of the oil exporters. But the growth forecast for the United States has been corrected in this year because of strong domestic demand by 0.5 points to 3.6 percent upward. The largest economy has thus recovered faster than expected.
China: growth below 7%
In the second largest economy in China, in 2014, at 7.4 percent so no more slowly grew like in 24 years, to the growth further this year to 6, fall 8 percent. Which is 0.3 points lower than predicted. However, Blanchard welcomed China’s decision to reduce the dependence of the economy on the real estate sector and the shadow banks and encourage domestic consumption. However, the limited growth in China fumes also expected elsewhere in Asia.
Due to the drop in revenue from oil exports and the political tensions to shrink Russia’s economy this year, according to the IMF expectations by as much as 3 percent. Here, the IMF revised its expectations sharply by 3.5 percent down. The slow growth in Japan called Blanchard “ one of the great disappointments 2014″. The domestic demand did not meet the expectations. It should also be expected not much of the structural reforms. Thus, the growth expectations for Japan had 0.2 points to 0.6 percent to be screwed down.
“Even with the sharp decline in oil prices, the outlook for the global economy are further attenuated, burdened by underlying weaknesses elsewhere,” says the IMF report. 2016 global growth down only 3.7 percent – 0.3 points less than expected as this year. The IMF called for greater efforts to boost the economy and vigorous structural reforms.
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Blanchard also expressed the hope that the benefits of the low oil prices was greater than currently expected. “If we meet again in the spring, our outlook could have proved a bit too pessimistic. I hope so. “
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