Despite the tailwind by the low price of oil lowers the IMF its growth forecast for the world economy. This is due to some weaker outlook in China, Russia, Japan and the euro area. Global growth, however, will get a boost from the low price of oil.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowers economic forecasts for Germany and the world economy. The global economic output by 3.5 percent will define and 2016 by 3.7 percent this year – so that each 0.3 points less than expected in October. For Germany, the IMF economists showed skeptical. Among the major economies of the opportunities for the United States would have only improved. The US economy trust fund in 2015, an increase of 3.6 (previously 3.1). Percent and 2016 of 3.3 (3.0) percent
“Global growth is a boost get the low price of oil, “predicted the IMF experts. Oil had reduced prices by about 55 percent since September. The positive effect that the cost of doing business and the decline in consumer purchasing power increases will, but more than made up for by other negative influences. Thus, there exists a further investment weakness in many developed and emerging markets. In addition, it does not run as well as hoped in some regions. To be stagnation and low inflation remains a concern in Japan and the euro-zone.
Less growth in the euro area
For the currency area, the IMF expects 2015 only an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.2 (1.4) percent in 2016 from 1.4 (1.7) percent. For Germany, the IMF predicts only an increase of 1.3 (1.5) percent and 1.5 (1.8) percent. While the forecast for France was reduced slightly to 0.9 percent this year and 1.3 percent next, the experts were more skeptical of Italy. The third largest economy in the euro zone will only grow slightly in three Recession 2015 by 0.4 percent. By 2016, an increase of 0.8 per cent is expected. This severed the IMF prospects each by half a percentage point.
recession in Russia
More dramatically lowered the Fund’s forecast for Russia, citing the low price of oil, the ruble devaluation and the Ukraine crisis. The economy will shrink in the largest country in the world this year by three percent and next again by one percent. For comparison: So far, the IMF had estimated a slight increase for 2015. Skeptical, the Fund for China. There, the economic slowdown will continue – albeit at a high level. The world’s second largest after the US economy is therefore likely to grow by 6.8 percent in 2015, less than expected last with 7.1 percent.
Monetary policy needs to push the economy
The IMF called for to strengthen the forces of growth and called primarily industrialized countries to invest more in infrastructure such as roads, bridges and utility networks. However, without the European Central Bank be mentioned by name – in many economies, monetary policy had to push the economy further and thereby initiate unconventional steps, said the IMF. The ECB will decide on Thursday whether she launches her controversial program to buy government bonds.
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