Official shall give the Greeks any good advice Angela Merkel (CDU). Officially, there is nothing in it that is, for which party the Greek sovereign decides in the parliamentary elections on 25 January. “We respect the sovereign decision of the Greek voters and wait now once off,” said Steffen Seibert, spokesman for the Federal Chancellor, hence. And he would not comment on speculative scenarios of what could happen everything after the election, the radical left should come from electoral alliance SYRIZA to power.
The line is matched – at least among the grandees of the Union. Horst Seehofer are in fact also cautious: “In Germany there are already sometimes a special tendency to play the role of a guardian against other countries,” said Bavarian Minister-President of the “world”. It was correct to link aid to conditions such as had happened pressure from Germany in the EU. “But we should not act as a senior teacher in the Greek campaign.”
It is rare that the Bavarians were so cautious in dealing with Athens last in the crisis years.
If the termination of the reform packages before?
Unofficially sees the attitude to Greece but also something else from. Ever since the second round of the presidential election on 23 December guessed the federal government that it would be close in Athens for the representatives of the reform policy. And when Stavros Dimas, the presidential candidate of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, in the third and final round of voting by fell on December 29, it was clear that a new parliament must be chosen in Greece on 25 January.
Given the good prospects for election SYRIZA Berlin is now trying to influence the whole thing in his mind. Sometimes with a lot of pressure. Also, to domestic policy to keep the euro-critic of the AfD small. And sometimes – like now Seehofer – with a lot of restraint to her aversion to the German dictates not to drive the Greeks left in the arms
For an election Syriza would be something like the meltdown of Berlin-euro bailout policy. Alexis Tsipras, the head of the party alliance, makes clear for months that he wants to go to an election victory – and, above all, what he does not. High social spending, public employment high, saving obligations to Europe down. Most of all have a haircut from Europe to Greece. . If Tsipras at his hard line, it would run effectively on the termination agreed with Europe two reform packages with the Greeks out
Tsipras wants to stay in the euro – but not save
The troika Observer Force of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), EU and European Central Bank (ECB), they all want Tsipras sooner rather than later to get rid of – and yet in Euro . stay For Angela Merkel that would be a nightmare. Other countries would be in an emergency make no more runs. It would be the end for Merkel’s path, which is always combined financial aid with strict conditions.
Quiet therefore initially made the federal government in background rounds end of last year it clear that they will not accept a course pivoting of the Greeks. “We expect that Athens fulfilled its obligations one to one,” said senior government officials in Berlin at that time. “No matter who is in power there.” When they realized that this quiet diplomacy may not be sufficient to keep the Greeks using the same method by which the Germans believe it is the right one, it became clearer.
First, there were the representatives of the Union, Greece at the weekend gave fire. “If the Greeks want to return under a potential prime minister Tsipras back to the old rut, then they should do that. But then there will be no more help,” said the CSU MEP Markus Ferber. And Michael Fuchs, the Group vice of the CDU / CSU, made it clear that he blackmail potential Athens today – unlike four years ago – holds for no longer exists. In other words: If the Greeks do not adhere to the agreements, they fly up out of the monetary union. Europe does not hurt more because the contagion effects on the much larger rest of the currency area are manageable.
Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder (CSU), warned in the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, however, before “exaggerated” and “hasty steps”. Although he had an outlet Athens from the European single currency also earlier not perceived as a “nightmare scenario”.
“But it has at that time aware of another way chosen. The first one has to seriously continue on, “Söder said. He therefore see little point in “to threaten the Greeks”. Söder but also included a rejection of austerity in Greece categorically. “For me, it is clear there is no debt and no discounts simply because now comes a new government.”
In the SPD has been understood as such claims are popular in Germany. To clear the electoral success of the Euro-hostile Alternative for Germany (AFD). The reasoning of the Union and SPD therefore depends at least as much to the Greek voters and politicians as the German sovereign. SPD Chairman and Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel therefore also calls for a contract compliance by the Greeks. And as the representative of the Union he then threatened with the end of Euro membership of Athens.
Gabriel hint, hint
The euro zone is now much more stable and stronger than they were a few years ago, Gabriel said the” Hannover Allgemeine Zeitung “. “That’s why we are the way also not blackmail, but expect the Greek government – regardless of who is -. That the agreements with the EU are respected” It is about the significant hint, hint.
As expected, the opposition criticized the debate over a possible Greek exit Euro-sharp. Green Party leader Peter Simone said in the ZDF “Morning Magazine”: “I think this is an irresponsible talk.” An exit could also have implications for other countries, such as Italy and Portugal. “We have a community of solidarity, the aim must be to stabilize.”
In fact, could Gabriel and the other representatives of a hard line but even right. While the courses for Greece’s stocks and bonds fall, the rest of Europe remains relatively stable. Gone for now seem the days where every cough caused a violent ague in Athens in Europe. “The risks of leakage of the Greeks are less than 2012,” therefore says a senior government official. Certainly but is not: “However, they are not zero.” Portugal, also a problem candidate could further be vulnerable. And Italy and France are entirely under great pressure to reform and thus prone. Who knows what’s coming?
Anyway, it is not that the federal government could simply dictate the Greek exit from the euro-zone, they would with the policies of the new government did not agree. The second and last time being bailout package for Athens ends likely to end of February. But that the commitment of the Troika in Greece comes to an end. So, it looks like the Greeks a kind of MRP for Notländer will indeed need additional help.
Does it run but as planned on a precautionary credit line, also , the European influence on Athens is already much lower than before. For this credit line looks much less controls. This also means that the policy space of the new government is bigger -. No matter who governs the country
Even representatives of conservative Prime Minister Samaras had in conversations repeatedly made clear in Berlin that they will no longer accept any further requirements in the old troika style because they troubled the people of Greece are politically impossible to explain. In Berlin, you know that for many months and is at least partly compromise.
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