Exports sag, imports even more – and it is increasingly clear: The growth model of the People’s Republic is in serious trouble.
the first week of the Chinese spring Festival is over, on the stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen is traded again, and gradually returns life in the cities on the east coast. Nothing has changed so in China. The Year of the Monkey follows on directly to the Year of the Sheep: with bad economic news from the People’s Republic. First it was the huge price drop in share prices, which translated last summer China’s leadership under pressure. The government stepped in with billions and imposed trade bans to support the markets. Now there are the export and import figures that give cause for concern.
In January, Chinese exports fell by 11.2 percent compared to the previous month. This was announced by the Customs Administration said on Monday. Even imports slumped by 18.8 percent. Analysts had only expected a decline of one or two percent. Higher than average decline was recorded in the European Union, and exports to neighboring countries such as South Korea and Taiwan shrank significantly. Overall, China’s exports in the first month of the year at 1.14 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 155 billion euros. Imports were at 737.5 billion yuan, or about one hundred billion euros, estimates. A small consolation: After all, was achieved an export surplus
At least partly likely to have been responsible for the extremely poor figures also the Chinese New Year.. Every year are closed the mills during the celebrations for two weeks. Last year, the Chinese New Year fell on February 19. This year, the Chinese celebrated eleven days earlier, so already on February 8. Many companies tried apparently to ship their cargo abroad before the start of the long holiday period. Why, exports increased slightly in December, the first time in nine months, but then fell sharply in January. Finally can judge is considering the location probably only in two months if valid numbers for February and March are present. Striking is nevertheless how far analysts’ estimates differ from the actual numbers.
Everything points to a lack of demand in the People’s Republic towards. And that burdened German companies. 2015 was, for example, the first time the sales of the German automaker in China back. BMW, Daimler and VW sold last year together 4.4 million cars and thus a percent less than in 2014. This resulted in an analysis of the auditing company Ernst & amp; Young.
China’s government is nevertheless allowed. For weeks now speaks Premier Li Keqiang of the “new normal”. The old two-digit growth rates belonged to the past, he propagated. Six to seven percent growth, which will reach China again this year, he promises.
world stock markets The world is afraid of the crash
Although it goes well in the German economy, crash, stock prices. The situation is similar in other countries. Why many investors lose confidence.
But how valid are the Chinese numbers? How can it be possible that the exports collapse, but the gross domestic product continues to grow? Which numbers do so?
Even China’s Premier does not trust its own figures and looks better on other indicators
If you look, for example, once the current consumption, it is notable that this last year has increased by only just over one percent. Has China’s industry started to save energy? Were the summer cooler than usual, so that the air conditioning did not have to be switched on so often? Or not agree, the economic data simply?
(Photo: SZ graphic )
Premier Li told anyway in 2007. American diplomats that he did not trust the official figures. He look instead prefer three other indicators of: He cast an eye on energy consumption, to the lending and the railway freight ton. As the end of 2010 with the release of American embassy cables Lis suspicion became known dedicated the The Economist Li Keqiang its own index. Currently, this is well below the official growth figures. However, also here the question applies: As meaningful Lis triad in a greater stress on services company? It is indisputable that the Communist Party needs a strong economy, it is their legitimacy to exercise power in China.
For fear of a too rapid cooling of its own economy after the 2008 global financial crisis, when suddenly the slumped demand for Chinese exports, put Lis predecessor Wen Jiabao jointly with the then party chief Hu Jintao a massive stimulus program to mitigate the consequences of the financial crisis in the west. In the short term had that. But since the debt of many Chinese communities have multiplied. The foreign exchange reserves currently are melting in record time.
To maintain growth, the leadership in Beijing would increase government spending probably even further. should really take advantage of new economic programs hardly: State-controlled investments primarily focus on established industries and the public sector, often lead to overcapacity. And there are in China already sufficiently – not least as the current steel dispute with the European Union is
GDP Why China’s low-growth should interest us
Beijing reports with 6.9 percent, the lowest growth since a quarter century. For the world and in Germany, the dramatic potential consequences.
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