After unification of Russia and Saudi Arabia: Rising oil prices now? – Tagesspiegel

18:44 From John C. Bockenheimer <- inTeaserPicPosition:! 2 -> <- self.position: -1 -> <- classId: HCF-inline-left -> <- position: left -> <- inIsPrint: false -> <- inHasPic:! true -> <- include ps1 ->

Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed that the funding rate for crude oil to be frozen. But that’s really the prices rise, some difficulties have to be taken.

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There were three short sentences with a major signal that Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Nuaimi dictated on Tuesday the world press: “We do not want large price fluctuations. We do not want to reduce supply. We want to serve the demand and the price stabilize, “the minister said after a meeting with his counterparts from Russia, Qatar and Venezuela in Qatar’s capital Doha. The markets reacted immediately to the words. The price for a barrel of North Sea Brent oil rose by 1.5 percent to nearly $ 34

As a little later then Russian Energy Minister Alexander Nowak turned to the public and explained the collusion of the oil states, it was fast with the euphoria in the commodity markets, however, over. Unlike hopes Saudis and Russians had by no means agreed on a reduction of the production quota, but only decided to freeze the funding at the level of January. The agreement was also conditional on that anschlössen other producer countries, Nowak explained further the collusion of the unusual quartet. On oil market was therefore not expected that it will soon come to a limitation of the offer. The oil prices fell then their daily profits back off completely and even slip into negative territory. Doubts about the effectiveness of the recent agreement are obvious large

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markets are calling for action

“words must be followed by action,” said Frederik Kunze by NordLB. Saudi Arabia, by far the strongest production Opec country rejects subsidy cuts. The kingdom wants its market share against emerging oil producer and US shale oil producers defend – if necessary by using large quantities at low prices. Russia, which does not belong to OPEC, also one of the largest oil-producing countries. Only Saudi Arabia and Russia together produce per day about twenty million barrels (per 159 liters) of crude oil. That’s slightly more than twenty percent of global daily output. The Opec comes to about 33 million barrels.

However, a commitment to the January level would be for the crisis-ridden raw power Russia to win a stage. In January, Russia had 46 million tons of oil promoted more than in any other month in 2015, the agency Tass has calculated. Including the January amount to the full year high, Russia would produce in 2016 a record amount of 552 million tons. In previous scenarios the Ministry of Economy in Moscow was considered of lesser amounts. The fall in oil prices has triggered a massive devaluation of the Russian national currency ruble to the US dollar and the euro and contributed to a severe economic crisis. The economic performance in 2015 declined by 3.7 percent, according to estimates of the statistical office in the previous year. It was not clear Tuesday how high the production levels of OPEC countries was in January.

Iran balks not yet

Until Russia and other oil nations to higher revenues from the extractive business can hope still some will be powers of persuasion. So about Iran on Tuesday expressed extremely reluctant to recent plans of the four producing countries. “So far, we are seeing strong demand in the oil market and would not therefore willing to forgo our share,” said Iranian Oil Minister Namdar Bidschan Sanganeh. But with Iran should be clearly spoken. Qatari Oil Minister Mohammed Saleh al-Sada announced any case that the Conference will now be followed by “intensive” talks with other oil-producing countries – whether members of OPEC or not. The agreed in Qatar initiative should stabilize the market, said al-Sada on. That is not only in the interests of producing countries and exporters, but the entire world economy. The Saudi Minister al-Nuaimi added here if it were the beginning of a process, “we will be watching in the coming months to decide whether further action is necessary.”

Threatens a new financial crisis ?

In Germany, the dispute over the production quotas is increasingly observed skeptical. “With the rapid and violent oil price decline voltages are connected to the capital markets,” warned Michael Heise, chief economist of Allianz, recently published in the Tagesspiegel. Because the oil nations break away revenue and budget deficits must be stuffed, they draw money from the markets. The American bank JPMorgan Chase estimates that in recent months has been disinvestment capital totaling up to 50 billion Dollar – a sum at least as high as the total expenditure of the Czech Republic. For weeks hence account for speculation about the position of the banks facing the oil and commodity sector around. Experts from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, according to oil and gas companies are among the world’s banks have around $ 2.5 trillion debt, $ 1.5 trillion through bonds, the rest through loans. Around $ 400 billion is to be alone with European banks.

Threaten German banks as a result of falling oil prices so new distortions? Commerzbank CEO Martin Blessing dismisses. “We estimate that as a problem,” he said, referring to the loans that issued his own institute to firms from the oil industry. 3.9 billion euros appear much, measured in total lending, Commerzbank is a fraction of one percent but manageable. The same is probably true for the German bank, without lists the details. The Bundesbank reassured. The capital position of the banks have been greatly improved, the current situation is “not in the least comparable with the Lehman crisis in 2008″. Employees: Rolf Obertreis