IMF warns of permanent global growth crisis – SPIEGEL ONLINE

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of a permanent world crisis of growth: Growth opportunities have decreased both in rich countries and in emerging countries and cause actual growth rates, says the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

To reverse this trend, growth inhibitors should be relaxed about by structural reforms and measures for increased innovation and productivity. “The increase in growth potential is in important industrial and developing countries must be a priority,” write the IMF scientists.

“But there is still room for optimism – the future course of the growth potential is not set in stone,” says the IMF study. However, the policy must act. Specifically it comes to factors such as the aging of societies as well as investment, productivity and labor market issues that would arise with different emphases countries.

Unfortunately trend began before the financial crisis

A cyclical monetary policy stance and, where feasible, fiscal policy could help. The widespread weakness in private investment’ll most likely approach by improving the environment and a policy based on sustainable growth.

began even before the financial and economic crisis in 2008, according to the IMF analyzes a less favorable trend in the industrialized countries in the so-called growth potential, which describes the opportunities for growth without major inflationary or deflationary pressure. The rate of this growth opportunities fell slightly below two percent in the major industrialized countries in 2006 and 2007 to around one and a half percent in the years 2013 and 2014 from. In emerging markets, they fell in this period by two percentage points.

In the longer term, the IMF expects in the developed world, with a slight increase in the potential growth rate of 1.3 percent per year on average between 2008 and 2014 and 1.6 percent in the period 2015 to 2020. This is well below the two and a quarter percent who were still detected in 2001 by 2007. In emerging markets, the IMF estimates that the potential growth rate of 6.5 percent per year from 2008 to 2014 is expected to decline to 5.2 percent in 2015-2020 on average in the period.