Financial Sector – These three scenarios discussed the German Bank – Süddeutsche.de

• The Supervisory Board of Deutsche Bank will decide this Friday night, as it continues with the Institute
• What is certain. The German bank will shrink, repel or evaporate unprofitable business
• The most likely is that the institution sells the Postbank subsidiary. But two other models are still under discussion.

By Harald Freiberger, Frankfurt

How German is the German bank? What role does business with private customers in the future yet? The largest German money house is the course for the future. The Supervisory Board decides on the strategy for the coming years. It is the largest course change for years to come.

In these hours of the Board meets. He is coordinating on which model he will present the board in the afternoon. The meeting of the supervisory body starts by 15 clock. That intensive discussions expected to show the schedule: The duration of the session is set to 23 clock

The policy change was necessary because the German bank is weakening for years.. High cost of litigation burden on the profits. Only on Thursday came out that the bank must pay a fine of 2.3 billion euros due to the manipulation of the Libor rate.

In addition, the low interest rates and increasing demands of regulation. The financial institution has only a thin cushion

The profits of the Bank are lower than expected. The aim was a return of twelve percent on capital employed, in fact, they stood at less than three percent. During the German stock index is hitting record highs and doubled since 2011, demonstrated by the poor performance of the Deutsche Bank, as investors have become restless. Especially because of them, the institution must change its strategy. The debate has three strategic models

What is certain. The German bank will shrink, repel or evaporate unprofitable business. This is necessary mainly because of the level of capital that specific size in relation to the risks must have entered into by the Institute. The German bank is padded very thin. Also, two huge capital in recent years have not helped much

Model 1. Bring the Postbank subsidiary to the stock market or sell

The favorite, it was said last, is the sale of Postbank, which was adopted only in 2010. This would relieve the relationship between risk and capital strong because Postbank has awarded many construction loans that must be backed by high net worth. The fact that Postbank is brought to the market, and the entry of a large European bank like Santander, Spain or the French BNP Paribas is talking would be possible. The private customer business of Deutsche Bank itself would preserve that model in the Group. However, it is expected to contract sharply, the talk is of a reduction of one-third of the 750 stores. Also, the investment banking would evaporated significantly according to this model, shops over 150 billion euros could be reduced in order to reduce the balance

Model. 2: Complete focus on investment banking

A less likely model is a complete elimination of retail banking, ie both the branches of Deutsche Bank and Postbank. The German bank itself would exist only as an investment bank on, the large company supports, would be added to asset management. A large part of the Executive Board shall have last, away from this model, which was initially favored

Model 3:. Muddling – and vigorous save

The third model provides that everything from the basic structure remains as before. No area would be sold – but in each area would be saved massively. Also this model were last given little chance

It looks as if the model would enforce one:. The sale of Postbank. The Postbank employees that are currently due to the faltering collective bargaining already on strike, are worried about their future. They protest this Friday before the twin towers of the Deutsche Bank – while the management team discussed how it goes

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