IMW forecast – World economic growth is shifting – Frankfurter Rundschau

April 14, 2015

Siemens-advertising at the Hannover Messe: Europe’s industry is doing well. Photo: AP

The growth of some emerging countries is slowing down, predicts the International Monetary Fund. For Europe in a better position than we thought – why is that?

runs best in the US. Europe falls significantly, but begins to berappeln. Therefore, economic momentum after China, Brazil and other emerging markets. This inconsistent and difficult to categorize picture of the world economy is characterized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest forecast.

Hope may plagued the Europeans. For the monetary union, the IMF raised its forecast for this year from 1.2 to 1.5 percent above 2016 from 1.4 to 1.6 percent. A bit faster he sees Germany grow at rates of 1.6 and 1.7 percent. Many domestic experts expect even more trust and Germany increased by two percent

. Oil price shifts the weights

upturn in the rich nations, slowing pace in emerging markets – the bottom line, this leads to the fact that the Fund may hold its forecast for the global economy. To her he still dares an increase of around three and a half percent.

The growth remains moderate and uneven, IMF head Lagarde Christin had recently declared. Your chief economist Olivier Blanchard said, now at the presentation of the current prediction of a “unusually complicated mix of forces” that affected the world economy.

It is obvious that the fall in oil prices shifts the weights , The losers are the primary producers such as the Arab countries and Russia. For most European nations, but Asian emerging economies such as China benefit with its huge energy needs.

To enormous shifts cause the dollar strength and the weakness of the euro and the Japanese yen. The movements in foreign exchange markets were unusually strong, says Blanchard. But they are good news for the world economy. Because the devaluation of their currencies helps the euro area and Japan, and thus the two regions that can use it urgently. In contrast, the United States was strong enough to cope with the appreciation.

Government criticizes low interest rates

Brisant it might be for other regions. “Another strong dollar appreciation can trigger financial tensions elsewhere, especially in emerging markets,” warns the IMF. There are nations and companies often indebted in dollars. For them the burden on those loans rises when the dollar is more expensive. The consequences of low interest rates, which caused about on the stock and real estate markets for a huge boom could develop into a threat to stability. “Destructive asset price movements in the financial markets remain a concern,” said the IMF.

For the most vocal critics of loose monetary policy traditionally one of the federal government wants to address the topic at the IMF Spring Meeting this week in Washington targeted. You will never tire of pointing out the risks of extremely low interest rates, it said in Berlin government circles.

Usually available but rather the Federal Republic in these international meetings in the pillory. In a report, the Ministry of Finance for the Congress, the US government recently warned the Europeans, including Germany against relying too heavily on the weak euro and exports. “Absolutely necessary” would be a stronger demand in Germany. US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is therefore likely his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble pushing (CDU) again to stimulate the domestic economy.