IMF: Austria in the EU in terms of growth in fifth last place – derStandard.at

Washington – Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a lover of impressive sounding compare. That turned the Frenchman on Tuesday at the presentation of the IMF’s spring forecast in Washington once again demonstrated. With the world economy is currently behaving like a puzzle where someone had the individual parts whirled duly and one had to put everything together again, the Frenchman said.

 

What he means: The oil price has fallen rapidly in recent months. The euro and the Japanese yen have lost much of its value against the US dollar, because central banks in Tokyo and Frankfurt weaken with billions interventions own currencies.

 

winners are euro zone and Japan

 

The big question now is: Who benefits from the changes? Blanchard’s response in Washington: The winner of the euro zone and Japan. The losers are all energy exporters, but currently the United States and China.

 

The IMF estimates that the economy in the euro zone 2015 by a whopping 1.5 percent and 2016 to increase by 1.6 percent. This is by 0.3 percent more than was expected in January. While the oil price fell 45 percent since fall 2014 Russia and Venezuela bothers as oil-producing countries, consumers benefit in Europe. “We are already seeing that people spend more on consumption remains,” said Blanchard.

 

The depreciation of the euro in turn will help Europe’s export industry. For example, growth draws this year not only in Germany (1.6 percent). It looks better for the crisis countries Italy and Spain. The risks have decreased: Not long ago, the IMF had been a recession in the euro zone, a probability of 40 percent. Now it is 25 percent.

 

Austria in the final field

 

The big downer from domestic point of view: The Austria 2015 forecast has been corrected to plus 0.9 percent of the Fund. In October, the IMF economists had expected an increase of 1.9 percent. Austria loses in terms of growth its strong position in recent years. 2015, the economy will grow more slowly in the EU only in Cyprus, Finland, Italy and Croatia than in Austria

 

One reason for the dent is not the IMF in its report. When asked about the charge of Europe economist Thomas Helbling says the STANDARD: “Responsible several factors, one of which is the continuing problems of banks in Austria Because many institutions struggle with their balance sheets, suffers lending..” Said Helbling. They also state that is so important for Austria Region South-Eastern Europe is in crisis. Croatia is hardly growing, Serbia is far in the recession. The important partner country Italy it better go, “but still not good.” And why Germany Austria prefer them? “The German companies benefit more from exports outside Europe, such as China.”

 

An interesting question in Washington was whether the rest of the world put up with it long enough to weaken the central banks in the euro area and Japan’s own currency for exporters. The US dollar has appreciated since the autumn of 2014 about 14 percent against the major currencies of other industrialized countries. Because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar, he rose also. For the industry in the US and China, the situation is so dangerous. “But China and the US are still more because economically than Europe,” Blanchard said. “You can handle that, so they want to.” (András Szigetvari from Washington, STANDARD, 15/4/2015)